Bank of Canada Press conference comparison — 29 April 2026 vs 15 July 2026
This Bank of Canada press conference comparison covers 29 April 2026 and 15 July 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The overall shift is dovish on inflation, but labour market and rate path remain broadly unchanged. The next decision is likely a hold, with the committee watching oil and trade risks.
What changed
More dovish. The overall shift is dovish on inflation, but labour market and rate path remain broadly unchanged. The next decision is likely a hold, with the committee watching oil and trade risks.
- Inflation — More dovish. Current emphasises core inflation remaining close to 2% and an extended timeline to target, a dovish shift from prior's hawkish headline spike.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Both documents describe the labour market as 'soft' with unemployment in the 6½%-7% range; no material change in characterisation.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Both documents maintain a data-dependent hold with two-sided risks; current adds explicit downside growth risk but retains hawkish pass-through warning, leaving stance unchanged.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document; no shift detected.
Key wording
The Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%.
The labour market is soft, with the unemployment rate remaining in the 6½%‑7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers.
CPI inflation rose from 1.8% in February to 2.4% in March.
Core inflation has been easing and held steady just above 2% in March. The proportion of the components of the CPI basket rising faster than 3% has also declined in recent months. So far, there is little evidence that higher oil prices have fed through to other goods and services prices more broadly.
Based on recent market expectations, oil prices are assumed to decline from an average of about US$90 a barrel in the second quarter to about US$75 a barrel by the middle of next year. If that happens, inflation should peak around 3% in April and ease back to the 2% target by early next year.
Governing Council agreed to look through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but if energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects become persistent inflation.
Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%.
The labour market has been soft, with the unemployment rate hovering in a range of 6½% to 7%.
CPI inflation rose further to 3.2% in May, mainly because of higher gasoline prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% and measures of core inflation remained close to 2%—so far, we’re not seeing broad spillovers of higher energy prices.
Inflation is expected to stay elevated in June then ease gradually in the coming months, returning to the 2% target in early 2027.
Based on the MPR projection published today, Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target. However, uncertainty is still high. Governing Council will continue to assess the strength of the Canadian economy and the outlook for inflation and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
We’ve been looking through the direct effects of higher oil prices on inflation, but the longer they remain elevated, the bigger the risk they spill over to other goods and services. As we have said before, we will not let higher oil prices become persistent inflation.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
29 April 2026 press conference · 15 July 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
The Cadence Brief
The one number that moved central bank pricing — delivered each weekday morning.