Bank of England Statement comparison — 18 June 2026 vs 30 July 2026
This Bank of England statement comparison covers 18 June 2026 and 30 July 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The July statement holds rates but tilts the risk balance hawkish via an explicit upside inflation risk, even as it acknowledges falling inflation and loose labour markets. With three hawkish dissents and conditional guidance, the next decision hinges on whether energy-driven inflation persists or second-round effects emerge.
What changed
More dovish. The July statement holds rates but tilts the risk balance hawkish via an explicit upside inflation risk, even as it acknowledges falling inflation and loose labour markets. With three hawkish dissents and conditional guidance, the next decision hinges on whether energy-driven inflation persists or second-round effects emerge.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation characterisation moved dovish: while the hawkish second-round effects warning is retained, the current statement adds that there is little evidence of such effects and clear signs of underlying disinflation.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market framing remains dovish and is reinforced by adding higher interest rates as a disinflationary force alongside loose conditions.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Policy stance unchanged with a 6-3 vote to hold, but the increase in hawkish dissents keeps the next move data-dependent; forward guidance remains conditional.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Risk balance has shifted hawkish: the committee now explicitly flags upside risks to inflation, whereas the prior statement took a balanced view.
Key wording
At its meeting ending on 17 June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Two members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
CPI inflation has fallen to 2.8% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through.
But the labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.
The Committee will continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and how its impact propagates through the economy. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.
Taking all the risks to the economic outlook into account, the Committee judges that it is appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting.
At its meeting ending on 29 July 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through.
Loose labour market conditions, and higher interest rates faced by households and businesses than prior to the conflict, will also act to reduce inflation over time.
Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably. The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy including via financial conditions.
The Committee judges that it is appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 June 2026 statement · 30 July 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Next comparison · Methodology
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