European Central Bank Press conference comparison — 8 September 2022 vs 15 December 2022
This European Central Bank press conference comparison covers 8 September 2022 and 15 December 2022. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The December statement retains a strong hawkish bias, shifting from frontloaded 75bp hikes to a sustained 50bp pace while introducing QT for the first time. Inflation remains the primary concern, and the labour market assessment tightens, supporting the view that the ECB is not pivoting.
What changed
More hawkish. The December statement retains a strong hawkish bias, shifting from frontloaded 75bp hikes to a sustained 50bp pace while introducing QT for the first time. Inflation remains the primary concern, and the labour market assessment tightens, supporting the view that the ECB is not pivoting.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation seen as still too high and requiring further action, but the level of concern is consistent with the prior statement; no material escalation in rhetoric.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Prior statement highlighted slack in the labour market (dovish), while current statement emphasizes record low unemployment and tightness, a hawkish shift.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Both statements signal further rate hikes, with the prior frontloading 75bp moves and the current settling on a 50bp steady pace; overall hawkish stance unchanged.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Prior statement had no balance sheet action; current statement announces quantitative tightening starting March 2023, a clear hawkish addition.
Key wording
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points.
Based on our current assessment, over the next several meetings we expect to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.
Our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Looking ahead, ECB staff have significantly revised up their inflation projections and inflation is now expected to average 8.1 per cent in 2022, 5.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.3 per cent in 2024.
The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside.
we raised the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points today, and expect to raise interest rates further, because inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period.
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and, based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, we expect to raise them further.
In particular, we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target.
we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target.
According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, inflation was 10.0 per cent in November, slightly lower than the 10.6 per cent recorded in October. The decline resulted mainly from lower energy price inflation. Food price inflation and underlying price pressures across the economy have strengthened and will persist for some time.
We judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace, to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.
we have today raised the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points
Official documents
Background reading
Related
8 September 2022 press conference · 15 December 2022 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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