European Central Bank Press conference comparison — 8 September 2022 vs 2 February 2023
This European Central Bank press conference comparison covers 8 September 2022 and 2 February 2023. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The ECB retains its commitment to further tightening and restrictive territory, but the tone becomes slightly less aggressive: the fixed pace of 75bp hikes is replaced by a pre-committed 50bp move followed by a more open-ended assessment. For the March decision, a 50bp hike is virtually certain, but the language suggests the committee may downshift to 25bp steps thereafter as it evaluates the impact.
What changed
More dovish. The ECB retains its commitment to further tightening and restrictive territory, but the tone becomes slightly less aggressive: the fixed pace of 75bp hikes is replaced by a pre-committed 50bp move followed by a more open-ended assessment. For the March decision, a 50bp hike is virtually certain, but the language suggests the committee may downshift to 25bp steps thereafter as it evaluates the impact.
- Inflation — More dovish. Prior emphasized upside inflation risks and sharply raised projections; current assesses risks as 'more balanced' while still noting persistent core pressures, marking a slight dovish shift in risk framing.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Current document contains no explicit labour market assessment, while prior noted slack in the euro area labour market; no directional change.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Prior committed to aggressive frontloaded hikes over several meetings; current pre-commits to a 50bp March hike but introduces data-dependent evaluation thereafter, signaling a slower pace.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Neither document contains explicit balance sheet language; no shift.
Key wording
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points.
Based on our current assessment, over the next several meetings we expect to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.
Our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.
Looking ahead, ECB staff have significantly revised up their inflation projections and inflation is now expected to average 8.1 per cent in 2022, 5.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.3 per cent in 2024.
The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside.
we raised the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points today, and expect to raise interest rates further, because inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period.
the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points
we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next monetary policy meeting in March and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy.
The risks to the outlook for economic growth have become more balanced.
Price pressures remain strong, partly because high energy costs are spreading throughout the economy.
we today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and we expect to raise them further.
Our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and determined meeting by meeting.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
8 September 2022 press conference · 2 February 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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