European Central Bank Press conference comparison — 15 December 2022 vs 2 February 2023
This European Central Bank press conference comparison covers 15 December 2022 and 2 February 2023. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The ECB's February statement shows a modest dovish shift from the very aggressive December stance: inflation risks are now viewed as more balanced, and rate path guidance becomes less prescriptive beyond a single 50bp hike in March. This signals that while further tightening is assured, the pace may slow after March depending on data, opening a path to smaller increments later.
What changed
More dovish. The ECB's February statement shows a modest dovish shift from the very aggressive December stance: inflation risks are now viewed as more balanced, and rate path guidance becomes less prescriptive beyond a single 50bp hike in March. This signals that while further tightening is assured, the pace may slow after March depending on data, opening a path to smaller increments later.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation risk assessment shifted from 'primarily on the upside' to 'more balanced', though underlying pressures remain strong.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market characterisation not repeated in current document; no updated signal.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Forward guidance softened from explicit multiple 50bp hikes to a single pre-committed 50bp hike in March followed by data-dependent evaluation and pace flexibility.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet policy not addressed in current document; previous QT plan unchanged.
Key wording
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and, based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, we expect to raise them further.
In particular, we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target.
we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target.
we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly – we had some clarification on this “significantly” – at a steady pace, to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.
From the beginning of March 2023 onwards, the asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem will not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of the second quarter of 2023 and its subsequent pace will be determined over time.
Food price inflation and underlying price pressures across the economy have strengthened and will persist for some time.
the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points
we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next monetary policy meeting in March and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy.
The risks to the outlook for economic growth have become more balanced.
we today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and we expect to raise them further.
Price pressures remain strong, partly because high energy costs are spreading throughout the economy.
The risks to the inflation outlook have also become more balanced, especially in the near term.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
15 December 2022 press conference · 2 February 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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