European Central Bank Statement comparison — 12 December 2019 vs 12 March 2020
This European Central Bank statement comparison covers 12 December 2019 and 12 March 2020. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The March 2020 statement maintains the low-for-long rate guidance but adds significant new easing measures (TLTRO rate cut and additional QE) in response to COVID-19, marking a clear dovish shift. The next decision is likely to see further accommodation if economic conditions deteriorate.
What changed
More dovish. The March 2020 statement maintains the low-for-long rate guidance but adds significant new easing measures (TLTRO rate cut and additional QE) in response to COVID-19, marking a clear dovish shift. The next decision is likely to see further accommodation if economic conditions deteriorate.
- Inflation — Little changed. No explicit inflation assessment in either document; no material change.
- Labour Market — Little changed. No explicit labour market assessment in either document; no material change.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Rates held unchanged but new TLTRO III rate cut effectively lowers funding costs, and same dovish forward guidance reiterated.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. Temporary €120 billion APP increase and unchanged reinvestment commitment signal further expansion of balance sheet.
Key wording
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.
On 1 November net purchases were restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion.
The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.
The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.
the interest rate on these TLTRO III operations will be 25 basis points below the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations. For counterparties that maintain their levels of credit provision, the rate applied in these operations will be lower, and, over the period ending in June 2021, can be as low as 25 basis points below the average interest rate on the deposit facility.
A temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion will be added until the end of the year, ensuring a strong contribution from the private sector purchase programmes.
Reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue, in full, for an extended period of time past the date when the Governing Council starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.
Although the Governing Council does not see material signs of strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the banking system, these operations will provide an effective backstop in case of need.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
12 December 2019 statement · 12 March 2020 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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