Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 22 March 2023 vs 14 June 2023
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 22 March 2023 and 14 June 2023. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The June 2023 FOMC meeting marks a hawkish pivot from the cautious March tone, with the Committee pausing but aggressively signaling further rate hikes and ruling out cuts. This sets up a 'live' July meeting where a hike is highly probable as the Fed prioritizes inflation control over near-term growth risks.
What changed
More hawkish. The June 2023 FOMC meeting marks a hawkish pivot from the cautious March tone, with the Committee pausing but aggressively signaling further rate hikes and ruling out cuts. This sets up a 'live' July meeting where a hike is highly probable as the Fed prioritizes inflation control over near-term growth risks.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation language intensified from acknowledging high inflation to emphasizing sticky core inflation, limited progress, and upside risks, reflecting increased concern.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market characterization remains tight and resilient, with demand still exceeding supply; slight acknowledgment of loosening does not reduce hawkish stance.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Policy guidance reversed from dovish hold to hawkish pause, with explicit signals of further hikes, a higher median dot, and a firm rejection of cuts.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet language is introduced but remains benign, focusing on ample reserves and manageable CRE losses; no directional shift from prior absence.
Key wording
At today’s meeting, the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point, bringing the target range to 4¾ to 5 percent.
we no longer state that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to quell inflation; instead, we now anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.
events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes. It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects and therefore too soon to tell how monetary policy should respond.
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent... the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high.
the labor market continues to be very tight... labor demand substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.
the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.1 percent at the end of this year
today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.
So it seemed to us to make obvious sense to moderate our rate hikes as we got closer to our destination. So the decision to consider not hiking at every meeting and ultimately to hold rates steady at this meeting, I would just say it’s a continuation of, of that process.
inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.
I would say about, about July two things: (1) [the] decision hasn’t been made, (2) I do expect that it will be a “live” meeting.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
22 March 2023 press conference · 14 June 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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