Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 18 September 2024 vs 7 November 2024
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 18 September 2024 and 7 November 2024. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The Fed slowed the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp, adopting a more cautious stance amid sticky core inflation and balanced risks, while still acknowledging policy restrictiveness. The next decision will be data-dependent, with December cut uncertain.
What changed
More dovish. The Fed slowed the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp, adopting a more cautious stance amid sticky core inflation and balanced risks, while still acknowledging policy restrictiveness. The next decision will be data-dependent, with December cut uncertain.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation language shifted from confident disinflation to caution over core stickiness and a higher-than-expected reading, though the trend remains intact.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market rhetoric remains dovish, emphasizing cooling and diminished wage pressures, with no sign of tightening concerns.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Rate guidance moved from aggressive 50bp easing commitment to a more cautious 25bp step with data-dependent pacing and no urgency.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet discussion absent from current document, implying no change in the ongoing runoff plans.
Key wording
The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.
Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.
We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
So we took all of those, and we went into blackout. And we thought about what to do, and we concluded that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s, that’s how we made our decision.
There’s nothing in the—in the SEP that suggests the Committee is in a rush to get this done. This, this process evolves over time. Of course, that’s a projection. That’s a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker if that’s appropriate. We can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate.
The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures.
Overall, inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but core inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we’re attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.
it appears that the moves are not, not principally about higher inflation expectations. They’re really about a sense of more likely to have stronger growth and perhaps less in the way of downside risks.
You know, we do take financial conditions into account. If they—if they’re persistent and if they’re material, then we’ll certainly take them into account in our policy. But I would say we’re not at—we’re not at that stage right now.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 September 2024 press conference · 7 November 2024 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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