Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 7 November 2024 vs 19 March 2025
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 7 November 2024 and 19 March 2025. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The March 2025 statement reflects a hawkish tilt on inflation due to tariff effects and sticky core readings, but partially offset by a dovish balance-sheet slowdown and a neutral-to-patient rate stance. The next decision is likely a hold, with the Fed waiting for clarity on tariffs and inflation before resuming cuts.
What changed
Mixed. The March 2025 statement reflects a hawkish tilt on inflation due to tariff effects and sticky core readings, but partially offset by a dovish balance-sheet slowdown and a neutral-to-patient rate stance. The next decision is likely a hold, with the Fed waiting for clarity on tariffs and inflation before resuming cuts.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation progress is now seen as delayed due to tariffs and core inflation flatlining, a marked shift from prior confidence in disinflation.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market characterization shifted from 'cooled a great deal' and 'not a source of inflationary pressures' to simply 'in balance', removing the dovish edge.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Policy rate held and forward guidance emphasises patience and waiting for clarity, stepping back from prior dovish signals of further cuts.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. New decision to slow the pace of QT reduces liquidity drain, a dovish technical adjustment not present in the prior document.
Key wording
Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
Overall, inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but core inflation remains somewhat elevated.
We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we’re attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.
We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
it appears that the moves are not, not principally about higher inflation expectations. They’re really about a sense of more likely to have stronger growth and perhaps less in the way of downside risks.
You know, we do take financial conditions into account. If they—if they’re persistent and if they’re material, then we’ll certainly take them into account in our policy. But I would say we’re not at—we’re not at that stage right now.
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We also made the technical decision to slow the pace of decline in the size of our balance sheet.
Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Some near-term measures of inflation expectations have recently moved up.
We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.
The changes aren’t that big
we think our policy’s in a good place. We think it’s a good place where we can move in the direction that—where we need to. But in the meantime, we, we—it’s, it’s really appropriate to wait for further clarity
if there’s an inflationary impulse that’s going to go away on its own, it’s not the right policy to tighten
Official documents
Background reading
Related
7 November 2024 press conference · 19 March 2025 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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