Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 18 June 2025 vs 17 September 2025
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 18 June 2025 and 17 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The Fed cut rates by 25bp and revised down the dot plot, shifting from a patient hold to an easing bias amid rising labor market risks, despite still-elevated inflation. The next decision will be data-dependent, with further cuts contingent on employment weakness materializing.
What changed
More dovish. The Fed cut rates by 25bp and revised down the dot plot, shifting from a patient hold to an easing bias amid rising labor market risks, despite still-elevated inflation. The next decision will be data-dependent, with further cuts contingent on employment weakness materializing.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents highlight elevated inflation and tariff-related risks; current acknowledges inflation has risen but notes 'maybe not as high as expected,' leaving overall direction unchanged.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Prior described labor market as healthy with gradual cooling; current reports significant slowdown in job gains and increased downside risks, marking a clear dovish shift.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Prior held rates steady with neutral-to-dovish leaning; current delivers a 25bp cut, lowers the dot plot, and explicitly shifts focus to labor market risks, signaling a clear easing bias.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet signals in prior; current mentions gradual end to runoff but remains neutral on macro relevance.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.
We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.
For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.
we do expect to see more of them over coming months.
the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are as we learn more, and we think our policy stance is, is in a good place—where we’re well positioned to react to incoming developments.
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point. ... the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 4 to 4¼ percent
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. With downside risks to employment having increased, the balance of risks has shifted.
The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.4 percent at the end of 2026, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2027. This path is ¼ percentage point lower than projected in June.
I think if you go back to April and now look at the revised job-creation numbers for May, June, July, and August, you can kind of—I can no longer say that. So what that means is that the risks, which—the risks were clearly tilted toward inflation. I would say they’re moving toward equality.
total PCE prices rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in August and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up.
There wasn’t widespread support at all for a 50 basis point cut today.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 June 2025 press conference · 17 September 2025 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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