Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 18 March 2026 vs 29 April 2026
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 18 March 2026 and 29 April 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. Overall, the document shows a hawkish tilt on inflation and rate path, with increased internal dissent for tighter policy, while labour market and balance sheet signals lean dovish. The Fed is on hold but the committee is pivoting toward a neutral bias, reducing the likelihood of near-term cuts.
What changed
Mixed. Overall, the document shows a hawkish tilt on inflation and rate path, with increased internal dissent for tighter policy, while labour market and balance sheet signals lean dovish. The Fed is on hold but the committee is pivoting toward a neutral bias, reducing the likelihood of near-term cuts.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Current document upgrades inflation assessment to 'moved up recently and elevated' and notes core inflation rising, reaffirming commitment to 2% target.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market described as not a source of inflation, with low unemployment but weak churn, reducing urgency for tightening.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Shift toward neutral or tighter forward guidance, with three dissents wanting to remove easing bias and committee center moving toward neutral, while Powell notes policy near neutral.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. First explicit balance sheet signal hints at possible end to reduction, a dovish addition.
Key wording
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.
The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4 percent at the end of this year and 3.1 percent at the end of next year, unchanged from December.
Meanwhile, the economy has—growth has been solid. And inflation—the overshoot is mainly from the goods [sector] and tariffs. And the labor market is—the unemployment rate, of course, is little changed since September.
I would say the rate is—you can characterize it as in the high end of neutral, or you can characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive.
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.
The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.
we’re several years above 2 percent inflation, and that we’re already “looking through” the tariff shock.
Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 March 2026 press conference · 29 April 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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