Cadence Research · Reviewed 2026-07-30
What is the Fed dot plot?
The Fed dot plot is a chart in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot shows one FOMC participant's view of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of selected years and in the longer run. The dots are anonymous and show a range of individual views, not a formal committee decision or a promise about future rates.
Why it matters
The distribution of dots can show whether participants' views about the likely policy path have shifted. It needs to be read with the economic projections and the policy statement.
How it appears in official communication
The chart is released four times a year with projections for growth, unemployment, inflation, and the policy rate. The median dot is commonly reported, but it can hide meaningful disagreement.
A common misunderstanding
The dot plot is not a binding rate forecast. Participants can revise their views as the data and outlook change.
Explore the live record
Related guides
Primary sources
- Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve)
- Monetary Policy: What are its goals? (Federal Reserve)
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