Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 27 March 2025 vs 8 May 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 27 March 2025 and 8 May 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The overall stance shifted dovish across inflation, labour market, and rate path, with the committee softening concerns about persistent inflation and tight labour conditions while maintaining guidance for a cut in 2025. This signals that the next decision is likely to stay on hold, but the door is open for a reduction later in the year if data continues to cooperate.

What changed

More dovish. The overall stance shifted dovish across inflation, labour market, and rate path, with the committee softening concerns about persistent inflation and tight labour conditions while maintaining guidance for a cut in 2025. This signals that the next decision is likely to stay on hold, but the door is open for a reduction later in the year if data continues to cooperate.

Inflation — More dovish. Prior highlighted inflation picking up and conditional tightening risk; current notes inflation falling markedly but still above target, with core sticky, softening the urgency.
Labour Market — More dovish. Prior cited rising employment and declining unemployment, signaling tightness; current omits labour market entirely, suggesting reduced concern.
Rate Path — More dovish. Prior contained hawkish signals about delayed cuts and a higher revised path; current retains dovish cut guidance and adds two-sided risks, removing the restrictive emphasis.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document.

Key wording

27 March 2025

At its meeting on 26 March 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent.
rate path: Formal policy decision: rate held at 4.5%, no change.

Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent at its meeting on 26 March. There is uncertainty about future economic developments, but the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.
rate path: Rate held at 4.5%, with guidance for a cut in 2025, but no immediate action.

The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.
rate path: Confirms restrictive stance is maintained, delaying potential cuts.

Weighing these trade-offs, the Committee judges that the current stance is warranted for somewhat longer than previously signalled.
rate path: Signals that rate cuts will be delayed relative to prior guidance.

The policy rate forecast in this Report is consistent with a decline in the policy rate to 4% by the end of the year, followed by a gradual further decline over the next years. The forecast has been revised up somewhat from the previous Report.
rate path: Rate path revised higher; cuts start later than previously signalled.

If the pickup in inflation proves more temporary than currently assumed or unemployment rises more than projected, the policy rate may be reduced faster than currently envisaged. If prospects suggest that wage and price inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required.
rate path: Two-sided forward guidance: faster cuts if inflation temporary, but tighter if inflation persists.

8 May 2025

At its meeting on 7 May 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent.
rate path: Explicit decision to hold rate steady at 4.5%.

Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent at its meeting on 7 May.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4.5%, no change.

the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.
rate path: Signals a cut later this year, reinforcing easing bias.

The Committee gave special attention to the fact that this may pull the interest rate outlook in different directions. On the one hand, the global growth outlook appears to be weaker, and oil prices have fallen. Norway’s main trading partners are now expected to make more rate cuts than previously. On the other hand, the krone has weakened somewhat and been weaker than assumed.
rate path: Two-sided risks: weaker growth vs weaker krone.

Trade barriers have, however, become more extensive, and there is uncertainty about future trade policies. This may pull the interest rate outlook in different directions.
rate path: Uncertainty from trade barriers complicates rate path, skews risks both ways.

Inflation has fallen markedly from the peak but is still above the 2 percent target.
inflation: Confirms disinflation progress but remaining above target keeps caution.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Next comparison · Methodology