Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 December 2025 vs 7 May 2026
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 December 2025 and 7 May 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document represents a clear hawkish pivot, with a rate hike and forward guidance leaning toward further tightening, contrasting with the prior document's cautious hold and conditional easing bias. This signals that the central bank is prioritising inflation control over growth support.
What changed
More hawkish. The current document represents a clear hawkish pivot, with a rate hike and forward guidance leaning toward further tightening, contrasting with the prior document's cautious hold and conditional easing bias. This signals that the central bank is prioritising inflation control over growth support.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation stance remains hawkish in both documents; current notes inflation broadly as projected but still too high, no material change in rhetoric.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market assessment newly introduced as neutral in current document; no prior passage for comparison.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifts decisively hawkish: prior held rates with conditional cuts ahead, current delivers a hike and signals further tightening.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet language in either document; stance unchanged.
Key wording
At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
Inflation is still too high. The krone exchange rate has depreciated since the September Report and contributes to raising inflation prospects somewhat going forward.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, there seems to be a little more spare capacity in the economy than projected in the September Report.
If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
At its meeting on 6 May 2026, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4% to 4.25%.
The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since the monetary policy meeting in March, but there is substantial uncertainty about future economic developments.
In Norway, inflation has been broadly as projected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6% in March, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was unchanged at 3%.
The policy rate forecast presented in March indicated an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼% and 4½% by the end of the year. The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since that time.
If the economy takes a different path than currently envisaged, the policy rate path may also differ from that implied by the forecast in the previous Report.
The Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4% to 4.25%.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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