Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 7 May 2026 vs 17 September 2026
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 7 May 2026 and 17 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. Norges Bank has raised the policy rate again, to 4.5%, which completes the tightening path it flagged earlier in the year, so the operational message is continuity rather than a new direction. The tone has softened at the margin, however: the committee is now openly split between members worried that inflation is still too high and policy not restrictive enough and members pointing to falling underlying inflation and spare capacity, which suggests the hiking cycle is near…
What changed
Mixed. Norges Bank has raised the policy rate again, to 4.5%, which completes the tightening path it flagged earlier in the year, so the operational message is continuity rather than a new direction. The tone has softened at the margin, however: the committee is now openly split between members worried that inflation is still too high and policy not restrictive enough and members pointing to falling underlying inflation and spare capacity, which suggests the hiking cycle is near its peak and the next move will hinge on incoming inflation data.
- Inflation — More dovish. Prior passages framed inflation as too high and liable to stay elevated with upside energy risks, whereas the current document gives special attention to underlying inflation having declined and undershot June projections — a clear dovish counterweight, even though inflation remains above target and members split over how persistent it will be.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour-market language has hardened from 'broadly as expected' with capacity utilisation 'close to normal' to developments being 'slightly stronger than projected', with employment higher and limited slack reinforcing the case for continued restraint.
- Rate Path — Little changed. The delivered 25bp hike to 4.5% simply completes the March forecast range of 4¼–4½% by year-end and the restrictive bias is carried over, though forward guidance now shifts from a pre-announced hiking path to keeping the rate 'elevated for a time' with readiness to raise further if warranted.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Neither document contains a balance-sheet or asset-purchase passage, so there is no signal to compare.
Key wording
At its meeting on 6 May 2026, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4% to 4.25%.
The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since the monetary policy meeting in March, but there is substantial uncertainty about future economic developments.
In Norway, inflation has been broadly as projected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6% in March, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was unchanged at 3%.
Labour market developments have overall been broadly as expected, and capacity utilisation still appears to be close to a normal level.
Inflation is too high, and there are prospects that inflation will remain elevated ahead. High inflation over time can lead firms and households to plan for persistently high inflation. It may then become more difficult to bring inflation down again.
The policy rate forecast presented in March indicated an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼% and 4½% by the end of the year. The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since that time.
At its meeting on 23 September 2026, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to raise the policy rate to 4.5%.
Members agreed that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.
The Committee gave special attention to the fact that underlying inflation has declined and been lower than projected in June. The 12-month rise in the consumer price index adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was 3.0 percent in August.
The Committee noted that labour market developments have been slightly stronger than projected in the June Report. Employment has risen further and been slightly higher than assumed.
Some members were of the view that lower-than-expected underlying inflation through summer may, in isolation, suggest that inflation pressures have eased and that inflation could also become lower somewhat further out than currently implied by the analyses. Others pointed to the fact that the inflation expectations derived from Norges Bank’s Expectations Survey show no signs of decreasing, which could contribute to keeping inflation elevated for longer.
Some members gave weight to the fact that underlying inflation has slowed somewhat and that capacity utilisation appears to be below a normal level. They were of the view that the risk of inflation becoming entrenched at an excessive level appeared to have eased somewhat over summer and that it could therefore be appropriate to await further information and keep the policy rate unchanged to avoid restraining the economy more than needed.
Official documents
Background reading
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