Norges Bank Statement comparison — 27 March 2025 vs 19 June 2025

This Norges Bank statement comparison covers 27 March 2025 and 19 June 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The June statement marks the start of the easing cycle with a 25bp cut and dovish forward guidance, reversing the hawkish tilt in March. The next decision is likely to deliver another cut if disinflation continues.

What changed

More dovish. The June statement marks the start of the easing cycle with a 25bp cut and dovish forward guidance, reversing the hawkish tilt in March. The next decision is likely to deliver another cut if disinflation continues.

Inflation — More dovish. Inflation assessment shifted from 'markedly higher than expected' to 'declined faster than expected,' a clear dovish pivot on the inflation outlook.
Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market not mentioned in either document; no change in assessment.
Rate Path — More dovish. The committee cut rates by 25bp and signalled further cuts in 2025, a dovish shift from the prior cautious hold with upside rate risks.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet signals in either document; stance unchanged.

Key wording

27 March 2025

Policy rate kept unchanged at 4.5 percent
rate path: Formal decision, no change.

the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025
rate path: Still signals eventual cut this year.

Inflation has picked up and been markedly higher than expected.
inflation: Upside inflation surprise justifies holding.

If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly.
rate path: Warns against early easing.

On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy could restrict the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Acknowledges downside risk of tight policy.

the Committee judges that the current stance is warranted for somewhat longer than previously signalled.
rate path: Delays expected timing of first cut.

19 June 2025

Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee unanimously decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent at its meeting on 18 June.
rate path: First rate cut in current cycle, signals start of easing

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
rate path: Explicit conditional guidance for further cuts this year

Since March, underlying inflation has declined somewhat faster than expected, and the inflation outlook for the coming year indicates somewhat lower inflation than previously expected.
inflation: Key data justifying the cut; faster disinflation reduces urgency

The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is greater than normal. An escalation of conflicts between countries and uncertainty about future trade policies may result in renewed financial market turbulence and could impact both Norwegian and international growth prospects.
rate path: Highlights downside risks to growth from geopolitics and trade

“The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook is now greater than normal. If the economy takes a different path than currently envisaged, the policy rate path may be adjusted. But our objectives stand firm. We will finish the job and ensure that inflation is brought all the way back to 2 percent.”
rate path: Governor reiterates commitment to target despite uncertainty

If prospects suggest that wage and price inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If inflation falls faster than projected, or unemployment rises more than projected, the policy rate may be reduced faster.
rate path: Balanced two-sided risks to the rate path

Official documents

Background reading

27 March 2025 statement · 19 June 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Next comparison · Methodology