Reserve Bank of New Zealand press conference — 8 July 2026

What this says

Today, the monetary policy committee agreed by consensus to increase the OCR by 25 basis point to 250%.

However, inflation in New Zealand remains above the committee's target range and the inflationary consequences of the conflict have not completely abated.

Future OCR decisions will depend on how incoming data, price setting behavior, and the strength of economic activity affect medium-term inflationary pressures.

Globally, despite the MOU in the Middle East, geopolitical tensions remain high.

we feel that it's it's the right balance to hike the policy rate by 25 basis points to bring inflation back towards target without causing any unnecessary uh volatility in output.

the committee discussed at this meeting is that there is uncertainty around exactly where it is and incoming data now over the coming months will help inform us uh of where we believe the neutral rate is.

we still have a negative output gap. We still have relatively high employment and that means that we tend to be able to grow without adding inflationary pressures too much.

high inflation as we've had now for some time that erodess household purchasing power. So for households to feel like they can consume again and invest, we need to get inflation back

So we do think that a 25 basis point hike is a well balanced approach both to bring inflation back down but also still uh provide stimulus for growth going forward and that is the fact that we're coming from 2.25 which we believe is below the neutral interest rate.

So there's a risk here that we get more persistence in inflation.

But the third part is actually the positive part in addition to inflation falling and that is growth is looking considerably stronger.

administered prices in the New Zealand economy have been increasing by 7 to 9% a year for the last few years.

it does make keeping inflation at 2% which is our target. Uh these are these all complicate uh hitting that target uh over the long term.

we still believe that um that it's likely we'll have to withdraw some more monetary stimulus. uh but the timing is highly uncertain.

we will be back in September with our September monetary policy meeting and then we'll have a full new set of uh of forecast and including a new OCR track.

Transcript

Kia or everyone welcome to the RBNZ's July monetary policy review. I'm Anna Breman, Reserve Bank Governor and chair of our monetary policy committee. I'm joined by fellow committee members Karen Silk and Paul Conway. Our other MPC members Haley Gorley, Pasana Guy, and Carl Hansen are also online. Over the next few minutes, I'll share some slides and I'll talk you through today's decision and our assessment of the inflation outlook. We then look forward to answering your questions. Today, the monetary policy committee agreed by consensus to increase the OCR by 25 basis point to 250%. The outlook for inflation has improved since our May MPS. Oil prices have fallen and supply disruptions in the Middle East have eased. However, inflation in New Zealand remains above the committee's target range and the inflationary consequences of the conflict have not completely abated. High inflation erodess households purchasing power and it dampens demand. So returning to low and stable inflation is a requirement for sustained recovery in growth and and employment. Economic growth is expected to strengthen in the near term. So today's decision is consistent with returning inflation to the 2% target midpoint while at the same time avoiding unnecessary economic volatility. The committee agreed that some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely, but the timing is uncertain. Future OCR decisions will depend on how incoming data, price setting behavior, and the strength of economic activity affect medium-term inflationary pressures. So turning to recent economic events since the signing of the US Iranou in June oil prices and prices for some other petrochemicals have fallen. However, some effects of the shock will linger for some time as supply chain and damaged infrastructure gradually recover and adjust. The inflationary consequences of the conflict have not completely abated. Refined fuel prices have fallen sharply from their peaks but remain well above pre-conlict levels. You can see that in this graph. Retail petrol prices here in New Zealand are still about 20% above pre-conlict levels while diesel prices are about 40% higher. And these higher

costs continue to flow through some parts of the economy. The global economy has been resilient to the effects of tariffs and the Middle East conflict. Strong investments, particularly related to artificial intelligence, has supported growth in several major economies and many of New Zealand's Asian trading partners. Inflation is still elevated in many countries and as a result, financial markets expect global policy rates to increase above pre-conlict levels. So turning to New Zealand, here in New Zealand, financial conditions have eased in recent weeks. Wholesale and longerterm mortgage rates have fallen as markets have revised down their expectation for future inflation. This may also reflect some improvement in liquidity condition in New Zealand money markets and that is what you can see uh on the chart on the left. Uh the prospects of higher interest rates in the US has seen the US dollar appreciate putting downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar twi which is the trade weighted index and that's on the chart uh on the right. A lower exchange rates support exporter incomes but at the same time it increases the New Zealand dollar price of imported goods and services adding to inflationary pressure. So turning to growth, recent data show that New Zealand's economic recovery was well underway prior to the conflict and you can see in this graph that it was actually a bit stronger than we expected. However, growth was uneven across sectors with agriculture and tourism performing well while household spending and construction activity remained subdued. The recovery lost momentum during the June quarter because of the Middle East conflict. But looking forward, lower fuel prices, monetary policy that is still accommodative, and strong export sector are expected to support growth over the coming quarters. And you can see the dots here showing the second and the third quarter of this year. The committee expects economic activity to strengthen from now on. Turning to inflation, while the inflation outlook has improved, inflation has still increased well above our target band. In May, as you can see on the graph here, we projected that inflation would peak at 4.3%

later this year. But lower oil prices now mean that inflation may have already peaked. We estimate about 3.9% in the June quarter. From there, we expect it to fall to 3.3% in the September quarter. This forecast is based on the current oil futures curve, which still indicates a higher oil price than before the conflict. Prior to the conflict, measures of core inflation, and that's the blue line here, were they were within the target uh range, albeit somewhat above the target midpoint. Recent business surveys suggest that inflation expectations may be easing and wage growth remains modest. However, with inflation having been above the target range for some time, the committee's focus is on the risk of persistence in inflation pressure, recent increases in fuel and other cost will continue to affect businesses and households for some time. So, let me acknowledge that a prolonged period of high inflation has been harmful for many household and businesses. Returning to sustainably low and stable inflation will support growth and employment over the coming years. Before I summarize, let me highlight that the economic outlook is still uncertain. Globally, despite the MOU in the Middle East, geopolitical tensions remain high. We've seen over just the past 24 hours just how fragile the situation in the Middle East remains. There's also the risk that a correction in AI related asset uh there's also risk of a correction in AI related asset prices that could affect the global economy. In addition, high government debt levels in some countries could push up long-term bond yields and weigh on global growth. Domestically, a key inflation risk is whether firms absorb higher cost or pass them on as higher prices. The likely pace and breads of the economic recovery is also uncertain and weather events such as El Nino could be an issue later this summer. Let me summarize our key messages. Today, the MPC decided to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The inflation outlook has improved since May. However, inflation remains above target and the committee remains focused on ensuring that recent cost increases do not become embedded in wage and price setting behavior.

Growth is expected to recover after losing momentum earlier this year. The committee assesses that a 25 basis point increase in the OCR is appropriate to return inflation to target while still supporting the economic recovery. Finally, I have one more decision with made today. It's a bit more technical in nature. Um, I would like to mention that the committee has agreed to fully unwind the reserve bank large-scale asset program holdings by June 2027. That involves selling a small residual bond holding early to bring forward the final stages of our balance sheet normalization. This is to improve operational efficiencies and it has no material impact on the stance of monetary policy. still important to mention. So to end, I would as always like to thank our excellent Reserve Bank team for the highquality insights and analysis that have gone into this monetary policy review. I would also like to thank my MPC colleagues for your constructive contributions and excellent deliberation over the past week. Finally, if you would like to know more about recent research on price setting behavior in New Zealand, our chief economist Paul Conway is giving a speech on that topic next week and I encourage all of you to listen. Now, I very much look forward to hearing your questions and I will pass to Naomi Mitchell to traffic your questions. Thank you. >> Thank you, Governor. Uh we will head uh just a reminder for journalists to please raise their hands if they'd like to ask any questions. We'll first head to Jason Walls at One News. >> Uh thank you very much for your time um this afternoon, Governor. I was wondering if you might be able to expand upon some of your comments when you said you wanted to bring inflation back to target without causing unnecessary economic instability. I was just wondering if you might be able to expand on that point if you can. >> Yes. So our mandate says that we should bring inflation back towards the midpoint of our target range which is 2% without causing unnecessary volatility and economic output. Uh and the assessment that we have this time with the new information that we have since May is that uh the strength in the New Zealand economy is gaining momentum. It

was both stronger prior to the conflict and we're seeing it rebounding now when oil prices are falling. And that means that we feel that it's it's the right balance to hike the policy rate by 25 basis points to bring inflation back towards target without causing any unnecessary uh volatility in output. Thank >> you. We'll now head to Lucy Kramer at Reuters. GA. Um, you talk a little bit in the statement around the fact that you're reducing stimulus as opposed to tightening. Um, do you want to just talk about a little bit about where you see neutral and whether or not you actually see a need to tighten the situation or we just need to remove stimulus um, in terms of how far we're going to go in this cycle. >> Yeah, thank you. So just to be clear for those listening, the neutral rate is the policy rate that we think is neither stimulative or restrictive for the economy and for inflation. And our assessment is that 2.25% was uh somewhat below neutral. So stimulative. So we are removing some of that stimulatory monetary policy and gradually moving towards neutral. Uh there's always a bit of uncertainty exactly what the neutral rate is. We have um an interval it's approximately two and a half to three and a half. Uh the midpoint is around three. Uh but what the committee discussed at this meeting is that there is uncertainty around exactly where it is and incoming data now over the coming months will help inform us uh of where we believe the neutral rate is. But there's a bit more on that in the record of the meetings as well. Can can I just add Lucy that uh um you know with inflation a bit higher at the moment and inflation expectations uh a bit higher at the moment the the sort of the shortrun neutral rate uh is probably a bit higher uh than that 2 and 1 half to three and a half but that's our long run uh assumption for where neutral is uh once inflation pressures have worked their way through the through the system and as the governor said there's a lot of uncertainty around estimates of neutral we have many different ways of estimating it uh But the committee sort of almost as important as those estimates is sort of feeling our way and

feeling how the economy responds to changes in interest rates to assess where we are uh relative to that idea of neutral. >> Thank you. >> Now head to Mandy at interest.co.nz. Um Koto um I just um wanted to ask about a line about future OCR decisions um will depend on the committee's judgment about how price setting behavior and excess um productive capacity affect medium-term inflation pressures. I just wondered if you could talk more to this um and sort of what would be the levers um within those that would um sort of lead to a hike or or possible hold. Thank you. Well, I think the most important thing is to consider that we would consider all data that affects inflation over the medium term. And that is why we stress that of course we're going to be looking at incoming data and what that tells us about uh where inflation is heading. We're also looking to the strength of the economy and to what extent that might be reducing or adding to inflationary pressures. And then the third part of that the excess capacity which is a bit of a technical terms another technical term is to say that we still have a negative output gap. We still have relatively high employment and that means that we tend to be able to grow without adding inflationary pressures too much. Uh so all of these factors will be important and we will continue to monitor all of them to make a decision of how we see inflationary pressures over the medium term. I don't know if Karen and Paul would like to add something more. >> Just like a sort of the way I think about that negative output gap is it's it's not a it's it's it's not a it's a challenging environment for firms to be increasing prices uh currently given that we have that excess capacity in the economy. So that that's what we mean when we say that demand conditions are sort of restricting the ability of businesses to pass on the increase in costs which has come through higher oil prices uh into into their into that the the prices for their products. So we're weighing up that balance uh all the way through and as the governor mentioned I'll be making a speech on how that price setting uh works or what what our recent research is sort of teaching us about that uh next week.

>> Yeah. And obviously um we look at a lot of indicators to um figure out whether we are seeing a change in price setting behavior. Um so and that that ranges from surveys uh through to um very hard data around uh business investment and business pricing. So it's a combination of things that we will look at in order to understand that and obviously inflation expectations is part of that as well. >> Thanks. We'll now hear to Bernard at the kaka. >> Uh, thank you. A question for the governor. Um, I I told my two daughters last night that I was going to be talking in the news conference or at least asking questions in the news conference because we were expecting the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates. They told me they had been applying for jobs for years and I know that the unemployment rate for young women is 20%. C can you explain why it makes sense to hike rates when there's that much spare capacity because I I can't see where the labor market is generating inflation? >> So high inflation as we've had now for some time that erodess household purchasing power. So for households to feel like they can consume again and invest, we need to get inflation back and that would also increase demand particularly in the sectors that have been struggling over the past years is particularly the domestic demand is affecting by high inflation. So bringing inflation back down will strengthen demand and particularly in retail services sectors that have been struggling and those are also very important for employment. So with inflation falling back uh and still the OCR being a stimulated territory, we think that we will see considerably better growth going forward and that will also improve the labor market. So from our perspective, inflation is also hurting growth and we need to get inflation back down to be able to also see stronger growth and a stronger labor market going forward. You can see that argument in the longer term, but in the short term, in fact, four years, we've had high unemployment. Um, do you really have to hike interest rates now when unemployment for that group is over 20%. I can't see how that's anywhere near any sort of

non-acelerating inflation rate of unemployment. >> Yeah. So it is a tough situation to be in and I do acknowledge that this has been a really uh hard few years for many households and also for many businesses. Uh and the problem is though that unless we get inflation back to a low and stable level, we're unlikely to see that growth and the demand coming back especially for the domestic services. Because if you look at New Zealand's growth right now is really driven by the exporting sectors, agriculture, tourism, manufacturing has been doing quite well and remarkably well even with the uncertainty around the world. But the domestic sectors, the retailers, the small businesses, hospitality, some of those have been performing less well and that's been because h demand from regular households have been weak when inflation been high. So bringing inflation back down uh will help see stronger domestic demand and also see then uh that employment will come back. So it's not an easy thing but it is important because in the long run it will make growth come back and also uh give us a stronger labor market. >> Do do you think though that monetary policy is fair? It's a very blunt instrument and it seems to hit particular generations who happen to be unlucky enough to be around when a recession is on. You talk about the longer term, but there are some people whose lives are now going to be scarred. >> And we talk about that scarring uh in uh the record of the meetings because it's one of the risks that we see that households have been hurting for many years and that could cause uh very much of a cautious behavior in terms of the spending high savings rate and then that would also dampen growth. So we do think that a 25 basis point hike is a well balanced approach both to bring inflation back down but also still uh provide stimulus for growth going forward and that is the fact that we're coming from 2.25 which we believe is below the neutral interest rate. >> Thank you Kevin. >> Thank you. >> Now head to Jana Timray at the NZ Herald. >> Hello. Um I note a line in the minute that talks about how the committee is leaning against looser uh financial

conditions. Um and of course you know financial conditions have been tight for some time previously. Could you please explain what has caused those financial conditions to ease and what you expect today's decision uh h how it will affect mortgage and term deposit rates looking ahead over the next few weeks? >> Yes, and that's correct. In the record of the meeting, we do discuss financial conditions and I also mentioned it during my presentation. What we've seen is wholesale interest rates uh falling uh on expectations that inflation will be falling which we also think and therefore a little bit less uh need uh for tighter monetary policy going forward. What what that means is that and that's uh in the record of meeting is that um more recent declines in wholesale rates have widened spreads between mortgage and wholesale rates reducing pressure for further increases in mortgage rates at some terms. Uh, and being even more blunt, when we were holding the OCR and no making no changes, wholesale interest rates were increasing and mortgage rates were increasing even though the OCR was on hold. Now we're in a little bit of a position where the tightening means that this wide the spread between wholesale interest rates and mortgage rates are already higher supposed to less pressure on the banks to actually hike mortgage rates when we do a hike. I don't know Karen if you'd like to comment even further. >> Yeah. No. Um so we have seen uh obviously a decline in as the governor said in uh wholesale interest rates. Um there's a few factors that sit in that. It's not it's obviously decline in oil price and oil prices is uh changing the expectations around policy rates globally. There's a strong correlation between global rates and domestic rates. So as global rates have come off our domestic rates have come off as well. Um there's also uh there was in the May around the May time there was a bit of an illquid a liquidity premium in the swap market that's dropped out as well. So we've we've seen quite a significant shift down in the wholesale uh interest rates and so as the um governor's explained that means that uh the gap between the swap rate and the mortgage rate has widened. That means that's got back to near historic averages. uh and

that reduces the pressure on banks to uh increase mortgage rates at this point in time certainly across those fixed terms. Um where they head to from now obviously is going to depend on economic conditions both onshore and offshore and how they evolve from here. And you know that's obviously one of the critical things we'll be looking at again in September when we put out our full monetary policy statement. >> I I think the other aspect is the exchange rate. >> Yeah. uh which has depreciated uh a bit over this year essentially because higher interest rates uh in the US have led to the US dollar uh appreciating. So that that's the other aspect of financial conditions becoming uh a bit easier uh over over recent quarters. >> Thank you. >> We'll now head to Rebecca Howard at Business Desk.

Can you hear me? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Sorry, I'm having some technical issues with my computer. Um, I was just curious because I can see the sort of short-term inflation projections are quite a bit lower than they were in May for this quarter and also for the September quarter and I understand that. But the longer term outlook in terms of bringing inflation back down to that 2% looks to be relatively similar to what you said in May. So I was just curious why did you just like what changed between May and now that changed the hold to a hike? Well there are I would say there are three factors. First of all it is that inflation is coming back but some of the effects from the conflict is still there and they will linger for some time. So there's a risk here that we get more persistence in inflation. Uh the other thing is financial conditions have eased. So it's the wholesale interest rates the also the exchange rate. But the third part is actually the positive part in addition to inflation falling and that is growth is looking considerably stronger. So we stress that we believe that this is a balanced approach by hiking 25 basis points to get and make sure that inflation does really fall uh while still supporting the economic recovery. >> Very cool. Thank you. >> Thank you. Um just a reminder for the journalists online if you could please raise your hand if you've got a question. We'll ask first answer first question shortly and then return for a second round if we're able. We'll now head to James Major from Bloomberg. >> Hi, thank you for your time this afternoon. Um I had a question about productivity growth. I mean if you look at the New Zealand economy and also the Australian economy you know productivity has been trending down quite you know for for a lengthy period of time and that is making it much harder to for for the economy to grow steadily without immediately feeding into higher inflation. Do you see that, you know, that that l that low productivity growth New Zealand economy is one of the things that you're having to work against and what really should be done on to to try and sort of to to deal with that problem both here and also you know across the

across the channel in Australia. Thank you. >> Thank you. It's an important question and we do think that productivity going forward will be important. Um but I since it's one of Paul's favorite subjects I'm going to hand over to him. Yeah, thanks uh for the question. So, so productivity determines the economy's potential rate of growth which is you know we think of that as the economy's speed limit the rate at which it can grow uh without putting upward pressure on inflation and it's true in New Zealand that uh growth rate that speed limit that potential growth rate is uh low unfortunately essentially because we do have a low uh rate of productivity uh growth. So it is it is something that we grapple with uh in terms of monetary policy. You know if we could improve our productivity growth the economy would be able to grow more quickly uh which would improve well-being without uh generating inflation and therefore you know higher uh interest rates in response. In terms of what to do about it you know that's the the vexed uh question. Uh we've got an election coming up. Hopefully we'll be hearing lots about that uh in the leadup to that. But I also like to mention that when we do business visits, we do hear quite a lot of firm investing in new technology that does increase productivity. We've heard that from the agricultural business, from manufacturers. We also follow very closely what's happening in the space of artificial intelligence. research shows that even in the countries where productivity is a little bit higher, it's not easy to make the connection directly to adoption of AI but there is a potential up upside uh and in a country like New Zealand there is the potential to increase productivity and we do hear some uh some nice information that people are investing in productivity and housing technologies. I >> I think that's a really uh good point. I I think the potential for New Zealand to lift its productivity performance uh there's a there's a lot of potential for us to improve our productivity performance at the moment and as we do get out and about around the country we are hearing stories about businesses that are investing in new technology, new ways of doing things and and also new business models uh you know which is

um you know hints at the potential at least for a more productive future for this economy. >> Thanks. We'll now head to Giles Beckford at Radio New Zealand.

Giles, we can't hear you, Giles. So, we might try and come back to you. We'll now head to Jonathan Mil at Newsroom. We'll try and come back to you, Giles. >> Y, can you hear me? >> We can. Yeah. >> Um just um ducking off into a LSAP very briefly. Um have you had any conversations with the gun government funding agency um about its capacity to um buy back that debt um especially at a time when there seems to be a bipartisan accord of some description um to do more local authority borrowing in the form of a rates assistance scheme. >> Yes. uh we have had conversations to ensure that we wouldn't see any unwar unwarranted market reactions but I'll hand over to Karen to give you the details. >> I I think that's um actually the answer. Yes, we have >> uh had conversations uh with the LGFA and they are entirely comfortable with uh this position. >> Can you expand on that in the um in the context that the um uh that both parties are talking about um expanding local government borrowing? I think that's something that you would need to take up with LGFA itself um directly. I' I'd note that the residual holdings that we would be holding as at June 27 if we didn't uh do this would be less than 2% of their total issuance. So, um it's not expected to have a material impact on their ability to be able to fund further growth in need. And you won't necessarily know the answer to this off the top of your head, but do you happen to know how much those um bonds were bought for? >> No, I can't tell you that my head. >> The amounts are in the record of the meeting. So, in terms of the LTFA securities due to mature after June 27, it's totaling 392 million uh New Zealand dollars. uh and uh noting that LGFA have a provides a regular repurchase tender uh and they have uh uh conveyed to us that they're very comfortable with this decision. >> Yeah. But um we can't Yeah. No, I can't tell you off the top of my head what the original price they were bought for. >> Thank you. >> Thanks. >> We'll just return for a couple of follow-up questions. Uh Bernard Hickeyi

at the Kaka.

Thank you. I've um I wanted to ask about how prices are being passed on. I see in the record of meeting uh the comments from Prasana Guy about uh coordination of price setting behavior and um also um some comments there from yourself um governor about the ability for firms to pass on higher costs. Um there is a lot of a lot of prices in the economy that are administered um set um particularly energy um but also you've got a lot of industries where there's not much competition according to the commerce commission. Um how responsive do you think prices are in these administered sectors and in these sectors uh which make seem to make up a large part of the economy um supermarkets, fuel, banking, insurance, um airlines where um they put up their price regardless of what's happening with monetary policy. I how how much impact do you think this hike is going to have on those those uh parts of the price setting? Um seeing >> it it is absolutely correct that there are some prices that respond more to monetary policy than others and we have discussed and shown graph in previous monetary policy statements around this. Uh and uh it means that there are some sectors that will be more affected and others less. Um but I don't know if since you're talking about price setting behavior Paul in your speech you might want to expand a little bit. Like I think your point is is well made. Obviously price setting behavior by firms has a big impact on inflation. Absolutely. Uh but administered prices in the New Zealand economy have been increasing by 7 to 9% a year for the last few years. Uh they're about um um 90 9% of the CPI basket. I think if you do the math it's it sort of works out to be 7 or8 uh on CPI. So definitely a large contribution uh to inflation currently and I also take your point that weak uh competition in the New Zealand economy in some sectors uh blunts the effect of monetary policy. I think uh interest rates still matter uh across the economy but uh I think I think uh I think it's a very interesting question the effect of New Zealand's uh competition challenges on the transmission uh of monetary policy when you sort of pile that on top of administered prices which I will be

talking about uh next week and and that uh the productivity question that we were talking about earlier um it it it it does make keeping inflation at 2% which is our target. Uh that these are these all complicate uh hitting that target uh over the long term. >> If those administered prices are responsible for 7.8% of inflation, could you argue that interest rates could be lower in the long term if we actually had competitive sectors like these? I I do think it's important that you know we do know that monetary policy is efficient and the OCR is an efficient instrument in terms of returning inflation to target. So it's true that it's not a perfect instrument but it is efficient and we are of course committed to ensuring that inflation returns to low and stable level sustainably over the medium term. Just one final one for me on um the issue of um uh the balance sheet effects of the downturn in the housing market. Um in Japan they had something they called a balance sheet recession. How much do you think the um fall in in house prices and therefore uh net worth of uh households that own their homes and other homes um how how much of affect factor is that in the slow consumption growth and and therefore you know how much of a um headwind might be created for consumption growth from a rate hike. So it is uh an important question that you raise and something that we have been discussing during previous and this meeting. Uh house prices have been moving sideways over some time and there's also differences across uh across different regions in New Zealand. I think it's also a reason why it's so important that inflation comes back to a low and stable level because then households will get their purchasing power back and with higher purchasing power they can also that will increase demand in the economy. So we know that the wealth effect is important but we also know that households real incomes the disposable incomes are important for growth and bringing inflation back will mean that household's purchasing power is back and that will support growth. >> It doesn't necessarily mean that you see rampant house price growth um because as we've talked about many times before um we have seen a change in supply conditions as well as a consequence of

that. So it is not just uh a demand story uh that that is driving this um as well. >> Yeah, house prices are around our measures of sustainable uh levels again consistent with what uh the governor uh Karen saying >> about them not taking off but as the governor saying uh Bernard house prices are not the only game in town. >> Thanks. We'll just take final questions. We'll head to Lucy Kramer at Reuters. >> Hi again. Um you guys discussed uncertainty around the outlook for the rate rises. Um does that mean that September is a live decision like we could go either way at this point a hold or or a hike? >> So what we've said is that uh there is uncertainty about the timing of potential future rate hikes. Uh that's always the case. Uh currently we uh felt that we needed to stress that the uncertainty has increased given that we're actually seeing inflation falling. uh and we're seeing growth recovering and we have the potential now to see inflation falling and growth recovering at the same time. So, we're not going to comment on any specific meetings. Uh we still believe that um that it's likely we'll have to withdraw some more monetary stimulus. Uh but the timing is highly uncertain. uh as we say in the record of the meeting and the media release >> withdrawing monetary stimulus I think are the key words there. >> Thanks everyone. Uh that's all the questions we've had for today. So really big thank you for joining us. I'll pass back to the governor to close out today's media conference. >> Well, thank you everyone for listening in. Thank you for your questions. We will be back in September with our September monetary policy meeting and then we'll have a full new set of uh of forecast and including a new OCR track. Thank you so much for listening.

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