What changed in the Riksbank statement —
Riksbank held policy at 1.75%. The policy message has swung decisively toward tightening: the earlier framing of below-target inflation and a largely neutral, analysis-driven rate discussion is replaced by an upgraded rate path, a signal that hikes will start this year, and an inflation risk balance tilted to the upside on supply shocks and a weaker krona. For subscribers, the next meeting is now live — the bar for staying on hold has risen, and a
Decision
- Decision: hold
- Repo rate: 1.75%
Going into the decision
On the day, the committee read as neutral — 0.2 on a scale where +3 means every member wants higher rates and −3 means every member wants cuts.
Reconstructed from official member remarks published before the decision date. 5 of 5 active members had stored official remarks.
What changed
The policy message has swung decisively toward tightening: the earlier framing of below-target inflation and a largely neutral, analysis-driven rate discussion is replaced by an upgraded rate path, a signal that hikes will start this year, and an inflation risk balance tilted to the upside on supply shocks and a weaker krona. For subscribers, the next meeting is now live — the bar for staying on hold has risen, and a faster hiking cycle is explicitly flagged if inflation proves more persistent than forecast.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation framing flips from persistently below-target with weak resource utilisation to above-normal pressures expected to rise near term, with risks explicitly skewed to the upside.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market appears only in the current document and is described as showing 'some improvement' — a mildly supportive but not directional signal, with no comparable prior passage to shift against.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance pivots hard: from a neutral retrospective that monetary policy has responded mainly to inflation-target deviations to an explicit statement that the policy rate should be raised more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin this year.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance-sheet or asset-purchase language appears in either document's key passages, so there is no signal to compare.
Previous wording
Our analysis indicates that fiscal and monetary policy have largely pulled in the same direction; that is, both have either been expansionary or contractionary at any given time.
During this period, inflation has mostly been below target, and resource utilisation weaker than normal.
The analysis also shows that fiscal policy has generally been expansionary when economic activity has been low, but it does not find the same pattern for monetary policy.
However, monetary policy has been expansionary when the forecasts have suggested that inflation would be below target.
This implies that monetary policy has primarily responded to deviations from the inflation target.
Current wording
The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
Indicators point to inflationary pressures still being above normal, and inflation is expected to rise in the near term.
The Executive Board therefore assesses that the policy rate should be raised more going forward than projected in the June forecast, for inflation to stabilise around 2 per cent.
There are still risks that inflation may be higher than in the forecast. As the war is continuing, the fundamental reason for the supply shocks also remains.
The price of oil, electricity and fuel has risen recently, and the krona has also continued to weaken.
Indicators point to some improvement in the labour market.
Official statement
Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
Press release The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. But economic activity is stronger and the supply shocks are continuing. The Executive Board therefore assesses that the policy rate should be raised more going forward than projected in the June forecast, for inflation to stabilise around 2 per cent. If the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year.
The supply shocks from the war in the Middle East remain and global cost pressures are still elevated. But the global economy has to some extent been able to adapt to the situation so far.
Swedish inflation in August was in line with the Riksbank's forecast in June. The measured rate of inflation is low, largely due to the direct effects of temporary fiscal policy measures. Adjusted for these, inflation is relatively close to 2 per cent. Indicators point to inflationary pressures still being above normal, and inflation is expected to rise in the near term. GDP grew faster than expected during the second quarter, but this is to some extent assessed to have been due to temporary factors. At the same time, the economic upturn appears to be broad and sentiment in the economy has improved further. Indicators point to some improvement in the labour market.
There are still risks that inflation may be higher than in the forecast. As the war is continuing, the fundamental reason for the supply shocks also remains. The price of oil, electricity and fuel has risen recently, and the krona has also continued to weaken. Moreover, the supply shocks can have larger effects on prices in an economy characterised by stronger demand.
The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. There is still spare capacity in the economy, and measures of underlying inflation which exclude the direct effects of temporary fiscal policy measures are relatively close to 2 per cent. At the same time, the Executive Board considers that the combination of stronger economic activity and continued supply shocks means that the policy rate should be raised more than projected in the June forecast to stabilise inflation around 2 per cent. If the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the Executive Board assesses that the increases in the policy rate will begin this year.
The developments call for vigilance. In addition to the war in the Middle East, there are also other risks that could, individually or jointly, affect the outlook for inflation and economic activity. If there were to be signs of a larger and more persistent upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would raise the policy rate at a faster pace than in the current forecast.
* Annual percentage change, annual and quarterly averages Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Report from June 2026 is shown in brackets. ** Calendar-adjusted GDP growth and seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment in 2029 Q3. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
* Per cent, quarterly averages Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Report from June 2026 is shown in brackets. Source: The Riksbank
Press conference in Gothenburg
The decision on the policy rate will apply from 30 September 2026. The minutes from the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting will be published on 30 September 2026. A press conference with Governor Erik Thedéen and Åsa Olli Segendorf, Head of the Monetary Policy Department, will be held today at 10.30 at the West Sweden Chamber of Commerce, Parkgatan 49 in Gothenburg. The press conference will be broadcast live on riksbank.se. Journalists can take part in person or via Teams. Advance registration is required, to press officer Susanne Meyer Söderlind, susanne.meyer@riksbank.se no later than 10:00 on 24 September 2026. Press cards or the equivalent must be shown to attend the press conference.
Documents
Press release: Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent (pdf | 196.1 kB)
Monetary Policy Report September 2026 (pdf | 5 MB)
Monetary Policy Decision September 2026: Policy rate decision (pdf | 204.5 kB)
Numerical data: Monetary Policy Report September 2026 (xlsx | 981 kB)
Outcomes and forecasts, September 2026 (xlsx | 1.5 MB)
Related
Background reading
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