Swiss National Bank Press conference comparison — 25 September 2025 vs 18 June 2026
This Swiss National Bank press conference comparison covers 25 September 2025 and 18 June 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The SNB is holding its policy rate at zero but leaning harder on foreign-exchange intervention, escalating its language from a generic readiness to a stepped-up commitment to cap franc strength, while dismissing the recent inflation rise as transient energy effects. With the labour market softening and no hike baked into the forecast horizon, the next move is more likely to be further balance-sheet easing — or another cut — than any tightening, keeping CHF…
What changed
More dovish. The SNB is holding its policy rate at zero but leaning harder on foreign-exchange intervention, escalating its language from a generic readiness to a stepped-up commitment to cap franc strength, while dismissing the recent inflation rise as transient energy effects. With the labour market softening and no hike baked into the forecast horizon, the next move is more likely to be further balance-sheet easing — or another cut — than any tightening, keeping CHF carry unattractive.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation is again framed as a temporary, energy-driven uptick with medium-term pressure unchanged, mirroring the prior statement's 'virtually unchanged' characterisation.
- Labour Market — Little changed. The soft labour-market framing carries over — from expectation that unemployment 'will continue rising' to confirmation it 'has risen somewhat' — with no directional shift.
- Rate Path — More dovish. The hold at 0% is reaffirmed and reinforced by explicit forward guidance that the policy rate stays at 0% across the entire forecast horizon, ruling out hikes even as inflation drifts up.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. The FX-intervention signal is materially escalated — from general 'willingness to be active' to an 'increased willingness' activated in March and reiterated to counter rapid franc appreciation, marking the balance sheet as the active easing tool.
Key wording
We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
We remain willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter.
Our monetary policy continues to have an expansionary effect.
The economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher US tariffs. The tariffs are likely to dampen exports and investment especially.
As a result of the tariffs and the high level of uncertainty, we expect growth of just under 1% for 2026. In this environment, unemployment is likely to continue rising.
We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold.
Our forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.
Inflation has risen in recent months as a result of higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
Interest rates in the major currency areas have since risen, in part because markets expect monetary policy tightening there due to the higher inflation. As the interest rate differentials with other countries have widened, the Swiss franc has depreciated somewhat.
Uncertainty about inflation and economic development is still high. We will therefore continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
Despite this positive development overall, unemployment has risen somewhat since the last monetary policy assessment.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
25 September 2025 press conference · 18 June 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Next comparison · Methodology
The Cadence Brief
The one number that moved central bank pricing — delivered each weekday morning.