Swiss National Bank Statement comparison — 25 September 2025 vs 11 December 2025
This Swiss National Bank statement comparison covers 25 September 2025 and 11 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The SNB keeps its policy rate at 0% but the overall tone has shifted from a clearly dovish, easing-biased stance to a more neutral wait-and-see posture: the current statement drops the explicit downside-risk emphasis and FX-intervention easing signal from the rate-path discussion. With inflation back to zero but medium-term pressures unchanged and uncertainty reduced, the next decision is likely to be another hold unless data materially worsen.
What changed
More dovish. The SNB keeps its policy rate at 0% but the overall tone has shifted from a clearly dovish, easing-biased stance to a more neutral wait-and-see posture: the current statement drops the explicit downside-risk emphasis and FX-intervention easing signal from the rate-path discussion. With inflation back to zero but medium-term pressures unchanged and uncertainty reduced, the next decision is likely to be another hold unless data materially worsen.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation has decelerated from 0.2% to 0.0%, with a downward surprise, while medium-term pressures are seen as unchanged — a subtle dovish tilt in tone.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Unemployment is again described as rising further in both documents; the current adds a cause but the characterisation is unchanged.
- Rate Path — Little changed. The policy rate is held at 0% in both, but the current statement drops the explicit downside-risk and FX-intervention guidance from the rate-path discussion, replacing it with standard conditional language — a neutral shift relative to the prior's dovish lean.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. The FX-intervention willingness is stated verbatim in both documents; it is now categorised under balance-sheet policy, but the operational signal is unchanged — neutral.
Key wording
The SNB remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Inflation has increased slightly since the last monetary policy assessment. It rose from -0.1% in May to 0.2% in August.
Inflationary pressure has barely changed compared to June.
The economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to significantly higher US tariffs.
Unemployment has risen further in recent months.
The SNB expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 as a whole. As a result of the tariffs and the high level of uncertainty, the SNB expects growth of just under 1% for 2026.
The SNB will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability.
Inflation in recent months has been slightly lower than expected. In the medium term, however, inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessment.
Inflation has declined slightly since the last monetary policy assessment. It decreased from 0.2% in August to 0.0% in November.
The forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.
Owing to this subdued economic development overall, unemployment has risen further in recent months.
Uncertainty has decreased somewhat compared to the last monetary policy assessment. That said, the baseline scenario for the global economy is still subject to significant risks.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
25 September 2025 statement · 11 December 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Methodology
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