Bank of England Statement comparison — 18 June 2026 vs 17 September 2026

This Bank of England statement comparison covers 18 June 2026 and 17 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. Since June the Committee has turned distinctly more hawkish: inflation has climbed further above target and is expected to keep rising, the minority voting for an immediate hike has grown from two to three, and the balance-sheet unwind has been confirmed all the way to zero. With inflation risks explicitly skewed to the upside, the next decision looks live and tilted toward a hike if energy-driven price pressure persists, even though the labour market remains…

What changed

More hawkish. Since June the Committee has turned distinctly more hawkish: inflation has climbed further above target and is expected to keep rising, the minority voting for an immediate hike has grown from two to three, and the balance-sheet unwind has been confirmed all the way to zero. With inflation risks explicitly skewed to the upside, the next decision looks live and tilted toward a hike if energy-driven price pressure persists, even though the labour market remains soft.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation moved from 2.8% and falling to 3.1% and expected to rise further, with the Committee now judging the risks to the outlook tilted to the upside 'more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report' and restating its willingness to lean against second-round effects.
Labour Market — More hawkish. June's dovish framing of a loosening labour market and a weakening economy is dropped in favour of 'activity slightly stronger than expected', leaving soft labour conditions as a disinflationary offset rather than the dominant signal — a mild hawkish shift.
Rate Path — More hawkish. The hold at 3.75% is unchanged but the dissenting hike vote grew from two to three members and the guidance hardened to an explicit 'stands ready to act' tightening bias, replacing June's balanced, non-committal monitoring language.
Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Balance-sheet policy appears for the first time in this statement, with a unanimous vote to unwind the government bond portfolio to zero at an annual average pace of £46bn — a persistent tightening impulse that was absent from the June key passages.

Key wording

18 June 2026

At its meeting ending on 17 June 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Two members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
rate path: Hold with two hawkish dissents signaling potential future hikes.

CPI inflation has fallen to 2.8% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through.
inflation: Inflation above target but falling; expected rise keeps pressure on MPC.

But the labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.
labour market: Labour loosening and weakening economy could ease inflation, supporting hold.

The Committee will continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and how its impact propagates through the economy. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.
rate path: Standard cautious guidance; stands ready to act with no pre-commitment.

Taking all the risks to the economic outlook into account, the Committee judges that it is appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting.
rate path: Balanced risk assessment supports hold for now.

The risk of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist.
inflation: Hawkish tilt: warns of second-round effects requiring policy action if energy persists.

17 September 2026

At its meeting ending on 16 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.
rate path: Bank Rate held at 3.75% by a 6–3 majority, with no immediate policy change.

UK CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further over coming quarters.
inflation: Inflation is above target and expected to rise further, supporting a hawkish hold.

Activity has been slightly stronger than expected, although soft labour market conditions, and the higher interest rates faced by households and businesses since the conflict began, will act to reduce inflation over time.
labour market: Soft labour market and higher rates are disinflationary offsets, but stronger activity is a countervailing signal.

Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
rate path: Three dissenting votes for an immediate hike signal a hawkish minority on the Committee.

The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.
rate path: Explicit readiness to act keeps a tightening bias if inflation risks materialise.

There has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting. However, the risk of such effects, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist or are more volatile.
inflation: No second-round effects yet, but the MPC explicitly wants to lean against them if energy prices persist.

Official documents

Background reading

18 June 2026 statement · 17 September 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology