Bank of England Statement comparison — 30 July 2026 vs 17 September 2026
This Bank of England statement comparison covers 30 July 2026 and 17 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. Since the July meeting the inflation picture has deteriorated rather than improved — CPI has climbed to 3.1% and the Committee now says the risks are skewed further to the upside — and it has paired that with an explicit commitment to shrink its government bond holdings to zero, so the overall direction of travel is toward tighter, not looser, policy. The rate itself is unchanged and the vote split is unchanged, which means the…
What changed
More hawkish. Since the July meeting the inflation picture has deteriorated rather than improved — CPI has climbed to 3.1% and the Committee now says the risks are skewed further to the upside — and it has paired that with an explicit commitment to shrink its government bond holdings to zero, so the overall direction of travel is toward tighter, not looser, policy. The rate itself is unchanged and the vote split is unchanged, which means the next move almost certainly hinges on whether the anticipated pass-through from higher energy prices confirms their second-round-effects concern, with an increase in Bank Rate more plausible than a cut unless that pass-through clearly fades.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation is now 3.1% and expected to rise further across coming quarters — a sharp upgrade from July's 2.6% reading — while the Committee says the upside risk balance has deteriorated 'more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report' and that policy must be ready to 'lean' against second-round effects.
- Labour Market — Little changed. The disinflationary labour-market argument has weakened rather than reversed: softening conditions and higher household and business interest rates are still cited as forces that will 'act to reduce inflation over time', but July's emphasis on 'clear signs of underlying disinflation' has been dropped and activity is now described as slightly stronger than expected, shifting this axis from dovish to genuinely two-sided.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Bank Rate is again held at 3.75% by the same 6–3 majority and the 'stands ready to act' guidance is repeated verbatim, but the three dissents are now framed explicitly as votes for an immediate hike to 4% and the risk balance behind the conditional guidance has hardened — a tightening bias with no change in the delivered setting.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. A new and unanimous decision to run the government bond portfolio held for monetary policy purposes down to zero, unwinding the remaining stock at an annual average pace of £46bn through £20bn of active sales plus maturing gilts out to 2034, adds a persistent background tightening impulse that was absent from the July signal set.
Key wording
At its meeting ending on 29 July 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably. The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy including via financial conditions.
CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through.
The risk of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist.
There is little evidence so far to suggest such effects, and there have continued to be clear signs of underlying disinflation in recent data.
Loose labour market conditions, and higher interest rates faced by households and businesses than prior to the conflict, will also act to reduce inflation over time.
At its meeting ending on 16 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.
Three members voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
UK CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further over coming quarters.
There has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting. However, the risk of such effects, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist or are more volatile.
Overall, the Committee judges that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report, although there remains scope for the outlook to change materially as events in the Middle East unfold.
Activity has been slightly stronger than expected, although soft labour market conditions, and the higher interest rates faced by households and businesses since the conflict began, will act to reduce inflation over time.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
30 July 2026 statement · 17 September 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology
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