European Central Bank Statement comparison — 6 June 2019 vs 12 September 2019
This European Central Bank statement comparison covers 6 June 2019 and 12 September 2019. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The September 2019 ECB meeting delivered a comprehensive easing package, including a deposit rate cut, QE restart, and improved TLTRO terms, marking a decisive dovish shift from the June hold position. This signals that the Governing Council is prepared to use all tools to address low inflation and weak growth, with further easing possible if conditions deteriorate.
What changed
More dovish. The September 2019 ECB meeting delivered a comprehensive easing package, including a deposit rate cut, QE restart, and improved TLTRO terms, marking a decisive dovish shift from the June hold position. This signals that the Governing Council is prepared to use all tools to address low inflation and weak growth, with further easing possible if conditions deteriorate.
- Inflation — Little changed. No direct inflation passage in current document; prior conditionality unchanged, so no material shift in inflation rhetoric.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market not addressed in either document; no signal of change.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Current document cuts deposit rate, adopts lower-for-longer guidance, restarts QE, and eases TLTRO III pricing, a clear easing versus prior hold and extended reinvestment.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. Prior committed to reinvestment; current restarts net purchases and introduces tiering to support transmission, expanding accommodation.
Key wording
The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.
Regarding the modalities of the new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III), the Governing Council decided that the interest rate in each operation will be set at a level that is 10 basis points above the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations over the life of the respective TLTRO. For banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied in TLTRO III will be lower and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation plus 10 basis points.
The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.50%.
The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.
Net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
6 June 2019 statement · 12 September 2019 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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