Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 20 September 2023 vs 1 November 2023
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 20 September 2023 and 1 November 2023. Overall, the newer document was broadly unchanged. The November statement maintains a restrictive stance but introduces more balanced risk assessment, acknowledging progress on inflation and labour market while keeping the door open for further hikes if needed. The next decision likely remains a hold, with data dependency guiding any further action.
What changed
Broadly unchanged. The November statement maintains a restrictive stance but introduces more balanced risk assessment, acknowledging progress on inflation and labour market while keeping the door open for further hikes if needed. The next decision likely remains a hold, with data dependency guiding any further action.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents emphasize inflation is well above target and progress is insufficient, with no material change in the hawkish assessment.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market remains characterized as tight but rebalancing, with no net directional shift despite some additional nuance on softening and wage progress.
- Rate Path — Little changed. The prior meeting's explicit hawkish forward guidance (higher dot plot, prepared to hike more) gives way to a more balanced tone with two-sided risks and downplaying of the dot plot, yet still no talk of cuts and open to further hikes.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet was not a focus in prior document; current passage confirms no change to QT, remaining a neutral background tool.
Key wording
In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments... the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 5.1 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.9 percent at the end of 2025. Compared with our June Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection is unrevised for the end of this year but has moved up by ½ percentage point at the end of the next two years.
We’re prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we’re confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective.
The process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent.
Given how far we have come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks.
Evidence of growth persistently above potential, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.
We’re not confident yet that we have achieved such a stance.
But a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.
Inflation has been coming down, but it’s still running well above our 2 percent target.
persistent changes in broader financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy.
Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, driven by higher longer-term bond yields, among other factors.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
20 September 2023 press conference · 1 November 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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