Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 12 June 2024 vs 18 September 2024

This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 12 June 2024 and 18 September 2024. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The September 2024 FOMC meeting marked a decisive dovish pivot, with a 50bp rate cut and language emphasizing confidence in inflation progress and a cooling labor market. This shift signals proactive easing to support the economy, with further cuts likely but dependent on incoming data.

What changed

More dovish. The September 2024 FOMC meeting marked a decisive dovish pivot, with a 50bp rate cut and language emphasizing confidence in inflation progress and a cooling labor market. This shift signals proactive easing to support the economy, with further cuts likely but dependent on incoming data.

Inflation — More dovish. The Fed expressed increased confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward 2%, citing substantial easing from 7% to 2.2%, justifying the rate cut.
Labour Market — More dovish. The labor market characterization shifted from solid to having cooled, with the Fed stating no further loosening needed to lower inflation, opening the door for cuts.
Rate Path — More dovish. A 50bp cut was delivered, with forward guidance that rates will move toward neutral over time, though pace is data-dependent; the preemptive framing signals a strong easing bias.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet runoff continues unchanged, with the Fed not considering adjustments, keeping policy consistent with rate cuts.

Key wording

12 June 2024

18 September 2024

The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.
labour market: Cooling labor market reduces urgency to keep rates high.

Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August.
inflation: Inflation close to target supports rate cuts.

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.
rate path: 50bp cut signals aggressive easing to support economy.

We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
rate path: Balanced risks allow data-dependent approach.

We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
rate path: Keeps flexibility; no commitment to further pace.

So we took all of those, and we went into blackout. And we thought about what to do, and we concluded that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s, that’s how we made our decision.
rate path: Confirms the 50bp cut was a deliberate decision based on incoming data.

Official documents

Background reading

12 June 2024 press conference · 18 September 2024 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology