Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 31 July 2024 vs 18 September 2024
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 31 July 2024 and 18 September 2024. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The September meeting marks a decisive dovish pivot: the Fed cut 50bp on growing confidence that inflation is sustainably moving to target and rising concern over labor market cooling. This signals the start of an easing cycle, though future cuts will be data-dependent and not on a preset path.
What changed
More dovish. The September meeting marks a decisive dovish pivot: the Fed cut 50bp on growing confidence that inflation is sustainably moving to target and rising concern over labor market cooling. This signals the start of an easing cycle, though future cuts will be data-dependent and not on a preset path.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation is now described as 'eased substantially' to 2.2% with 'confidence' in sustainable progress toward 2%, a clear dovish shift from prior 'eased notably but remains somewhat above'.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market characterization moved from 'strong, but not overheated' to 'cooled from formerly overheated' with warnings of potential job losses, indicating greater concern about downside risks.
- Rate Path — More dovish. The Fed delivered a 50bp cut and signaled a commitment to 'recalibrating' toward neutral, while cautioning against a preset pace—net dovish despite a hawkish note on higher neutral rate.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet runoff continues unchanged; no shift in stance signaled.
Key wording
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
We’ve stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
The broad sense of the Committee is that the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate.
a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.
the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
Inflation has eased notably over the past two years but remains somewhat above our longer-run goal of 2 percent.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point.
We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
So we took all of those, and we went into blackout. And we thought about what to do, and we concluded that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s, that’s how we made our decision.
There’s nothing in the—in the SEP that suggests the Committee is in a rush to get this done. This, this process evolves over time. Of course, that’s a projection. That’s a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker if that’s appropriate. We can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate.
Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
31 July 2024 press conference · 18 September 2024 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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