Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 12 June 2024 vs 7 November 2024
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 12 June 2024 and 7 November 2024. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The November 2024 statement marks a clear dovish pivot from June, with an actual rate cut and forward guidance emphasizing gradual easing toward neutral, supported by improved inflation progress and a cooling labor market. The next decision likely continues the easing cycle but with data-dependent pace, as risks are balanced.
What changed
More dovish. The November 2024 statement marks a clear dovish pivot from June, with an actual rate cut and forward guidance emphasizing gradual easing toward neutral, supported by improved inflation progress and a cooling labor market. The next decision likely continues the easing cycle but with data-dependent pace, as risks are balanced.
- Inflation — More dovish. The current document downplays inflation concerns with more references to sustainable progress and anchored expectations, while the prior stressed persistent elevation and need for confidence.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market language shifted from highlighting wage pressures and gradual cooling to emphasizing balance and no need for further cooling, opening the door to cuts.
- Rate Path — More dovish. The current document includes a rate cut and explicit forward guidance toward a neutral stance, reversing the prior's cautious hold with references to delayed cuts and need for confidence.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document; no shift to assess.
Key wording
Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to 2.7 percent but is still too high.
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
As labor market tightness has eased and inflation has declined over the past year, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance.
We’ve stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
If the economy evolves as expected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.1 percent at the end of this year, 4.1 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026.
We welcome today’s reading and then hope for more like that.
Overall, inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but core inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Today, the FOMC decided to take another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we’re attentive to the risks to both sides of our mandate.
We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
it appears that the moves are not, not principally about higher inflation expectations. They’re really about a sense of more likely to have stronger growth and perhaps less in the way of downside risks.
we got one inflation report, which was—it wasn’t terrible, but it was— it was a little higher than expected. So I think, really, the question is, is December.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
12 June 2024 press conference · 7 November 2024 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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