Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 18 June 2025 vs 29 October 2025

This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 18 June 2025 and 29 October 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The Fed cut rates by 25bp while signalling no preset course for December, balancing a soft labour market against lingering inflation risks. The overall message is a cautious easing cycle, with a hawkish tone on future cuts but a dovish tilt on balance sheet normalization.

What changed

More dovish. The Fed cut rates by 25bp while signalling no preset course for December, balancing a soft labour market against lingering inflation risks. The overall message is a cautious easing cycle, with a hawkish tone on future cuts but a dovish tilt on balance sheet normalization.

Inflation — Little changed. Inflation assessment remains cautious with tariff risks, but the cut was justified by progress on core ex-tariffs, resulting in a neutral stance overall.
Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market characterisation shifted from stable and healthy to notably softer, highlighting near-zero adjusted job creation and supporting the case for easing.
Rate Path — More dovish. The committee delivered a 25bp cut but strongly pushed back against pricing of consecutive cuts, making the rate path dovish in action but cautious in forward guidance.
Balance Sheet — More dovish. The decision to conclude quantitative tightening early and freeze balance sheet size marks a clear dovish shift in balance sheet policy.

Key wording

18 June 2025

today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.
rate path: Rate held steady as expected.

We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.
rate path: Signals flexibility but no urgency to adjust.

We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.
rate path: Highlights risk of stagflationary trade-off.

For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.
rate path: Explicitly says Fed can wait, no imminent changes.

we do expect to see more of them over coming months.
inflation: Tariff effects on inflation expected to increase, suggesting Fed may hold rates longer.

the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are as we learn more, and we think our policy stance is, is in a good place—where we’re well positioned to react to incoming developments.
rate path: Fed maintaining status quo, waiting on data, no imminent cut.

29 October 2025

today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
rate path: 25bp cut, as expected, signals continued easing.

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.
rate path: Highlights difficult trade-off with no risk-free path for policy.

A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.
rate path: Pushback against market pricing of consecutive cuts; December uncertain.

a further reduction to the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion
rate path: Explicit pushback against market pricing of a December cut

We estimate—people have different estimates of what that is, but it might be five- or six-tenths, and so if it’s 2.8, then core PCE, not including tariffs, might be 2.3 or 2.4, in that range, something like that.
inflation: Core inflation ex-tariffs near target, reducing urgency for further tightening.

they were strongly differing views
rate path: Highlights deep internal division on the committee

Official documents

Background reading

18 June 2025 press conference · 29 October 2025 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology