Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 17 September 2025 vs 29 October 2025
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 17 September 2025 and 29 October 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current document delivers a 25bp cut but counters it with strong hawkish forward guidance on the rate path, while the balance sheet and labour market assessments shift dovish. The net signal is a cautious easing cycle: further cuts are conditional on data and uncertain, with the committee divided on the next move.
What changed
More dovish. The current document delivers a 25bp cut but counters it with strong hawkish forward guidance on the rate path, while the balance sheet and labour market assessments shift dovish. The net signal is a cautious easing cycle: further cuts are conditional on data and uncertain, with the committee divided on the next move.
- Inflation — Little changed. Core inflation ex-tariffs is near target but the committee remains vigilant on transitory risks and reaffirms 2% commitment, leaving the inflation assessment balanced.
- Labour Market — More dovish. The labour market is characterized by very low job creation and a soft job-finding rate, with the Fed emphasizing support for employment via rate cuts.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Despite a 25bp cut, the committee explicitly pushes back against market pricing for consecutive cuts, citing high uncertainty and deep internal divisions.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. The early conclusion of balance sheet runoff and a freeze on its size signal a clear shift toward accommodative liquidity conditions.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.
A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.
At today’s meeting, the Committee also decided to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1.
a further reduction to the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion
they were strongly differing views
Official documents
Background reading
Related
17 September 2025 press conference · 29 October 2025 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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