Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 28 January 2026 vs 18 March 2026
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 28 January 2026 and 18 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The FOMC shifted dovish on inflation, labour, and rate path, downplaying tariff concerns and highlighting labour market weakness, signaling increased openness to rate cuts. The next decision remains data-dependent but the bar to cut has lowered.
What changed
More dovish. The FOMC shifted dovish on inflation, labour, and rate path, downplaying tariff concerns and highlighting labour market weakness, signaling increased openness to rate cuts. The next decision remains data-dependent but the bar to cut has lowered.
- Inflation — More dovish. The current document downplays tariff-driven inflation as a one-time event and expects disinflation, contrasting with the prior document's mixed view that highlighted upside tariff risks.
- Labour Market — More dovish. The current document highlights weak job creation and downside risks, while the prior emphasized stabilization and improved outlook, marking a dovish shift.
- Rate Path — More dovish. The current document characterizes rates as at the high end of neutral or mildly restrictive and indicates policy reaction to tariffs would be too late, a dovish shift from the prior's neutral hold stance with hawkish risk balance.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet signals in either document; no shift detected.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
It used to say that 'judges the downside risks to employment rose in recent months.' So we saw data coming in which suggests some signs of stabilization—I wouldn't go too far with that, but some signs of stabilization. There are also some signs of continued cooling. And so we thought that was no longer an accurate description of the data.
These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing in the services sector.
indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening.
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4 percent at the end of this year and 3.1 percent at the end of next year, unchanged from December.
I would say the rate is—you can characterize it as in the high end of neutral, or you can characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive.
Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.
I’d be hard pressed to say that one of them is obviously more at risk than the other.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
28 January 2026 press conference · 18 March 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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