Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 10 December 2025 vs 29 April 2026
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 10 December 2025 and 29 April 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The Fed moved from cutting rates with internal division to holding rates with rising hawkish dissent, as inflation concerns intensified and labour market worries receded. This signals that the next move is more likely a hike than a cut, but the committee remains data-dependent and cautious.
What changed
More hawkish. The Fed moved from cutting rates with internal division to holding rates with rising hawkish dissent, as inflation concerns intensified and labour market worries receded. This signals that the next move is more likely a hike than a cut, but the committee remains data-dependent and cautious.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation assessment turned more hawkish: prior acknowledged tariff-driven pickup but considered it transitory, while current highlights elevated inflation, core moving in the wrong direction, and reaffirmed commitment to 2%.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market shifted from explicit downside risks and softening to a balanced assessment where unemployment is low and not a source of inflation, reducing the urgency for further cuts.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifted from a cut (with division) to a hold with growing internal dissent favoring tighter policy and more hawkish forward guidance, even as policy is described as near neutral.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. Balance sheet stance emerged as dovish: prior had no mention, current hints at possible end to reduction at next meeting.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
the official report on the labor market for September, the most recent release, showed that the unemployment rate continued to edge up, reaching 4.4 percent
These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs.
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.
The adjustments to our policy stance since September bring it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral and leave us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
That new language points out that we’ll carefully evaluate that incoming data. And, also, I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, the fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
we don’t feel that the labor market is at all a source of inflation, so we don’t need to be worrying about that.
Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.
We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.
Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
10 December 2025 press conference · 29 April 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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