Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 8 May 2025 vs 18 September 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 8 May 2025 and 18 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document delivers the anticipated rate cut but replaces prior dovish forward guidance with a hawkish tilt signaling potential further tightening, reflecting concern over persistent inflation and slowing disinflation. The next decision likely depends on inflation data, with risks tilted toward a hold or even a hike if underlying pressures continue.

What changed

More hawkish. The current document delivers the anticipated rate cut but replaces prior dovish forward guidance with a hawkish tilt signaling potential further tightening, reflecting concern over persistent inflation and slowing disinflation. The next decision likely depends on inflation data, with risks tilted toward a hold or even a hike if underlying pressures continue.

Inflation — More hawkish. Current statement highlights slowing disinflation and stronger underlying pressure, whereas prior noted inflation falling markedly but above target.
Labour Market — Little changed. No prior labour market assessment; current statement describes labour market as stable with little change, neutral.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Despite delivering a rate cut, the committee signals that a higher policy rate may be needed ahead, a hawkish shift from prior's expectations of a cut later in 2025.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet signals in either document; no shift.

Key wording

8 May 2025

At its meeting on 7 May 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent.
rate path: Explicit decision to hold rate steady at 4.5%.

Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent at its meeting on 7 May.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4.5%, no change.

There is uncertainty about future economic developments, but the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.
rate path: Signals a cut later in 2025, dovish tilt.

the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.
rate path: Signals a cut later this year, reinforcing easing bias.

Inflation has fallen markedly from the peak but is still above the 2 percent target.
inflation: Confirms disinflation progress but remaining above target keeps caution.

The Committee gave special attention to the fact that this may pull the interest rate outlook in different directions. On the one hand, the global growth outlook appears to be weaker, and oil prices have fallen. Norway’s main trading partners are now expected to make more rate cuts than previously. On the other hand, the krone has weakened somewhat and been weaker than assumed.
rate path: Two-sided risks: weaker growth vs weaker krone.

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: Actual rate cut signals easing.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Hawkish surprise: signals slower pace of cuts or possible hikes.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts over next year.

this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: The committee decided to cut rates, signaling an easing bias.

Given a gradual decline in wage growth ahead, inflation is projected to move down and be close to 2 percent in 2028.
inflation: Inflation outlook expects gradual decline to target by 2028, supporting gradual easing.

A cautious normalisation of the policy rate will pave the way for inflation to return to target further out without a substantial increase in unemployment.
rate path: Guides that normalisation will be gradual, balancing inflation and employment.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology