Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 19 June 2025 vs 18 September 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 19 June 2025 and 18 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document cuts rates but surprises with hawkish forward guidance, indicating a potential pause or reversal in the easing cycle. Inflation concerns resurface, while labour market stability provides no urgency for further easing, making the next decision highly data-dependent.

What changed

More hawkish. The current document cuts rates but surprises with hawkish forward guidance, indicating a potential pause or reversal in the easing cycle. Inflation concerns resurface, while labour market stability provides no urgency for further easing, making the next decision highly data-dependent.

Inflation — More hawkish. Prior inflation signals emphasized lower-than-expected inflation and undershooting, while current signals highlight slowing disinflation and stronger underlying pressure, marking a hawkish shift.
Labour Market — Little changed. Prior labour market signals were dovish with rising unemployment and slack, while current signals describe unemployment as stable and little changed, indicating a neutral stance.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Although the current document delivers a rate cut, it includes a hawkish forward guidance that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead, reversing the prior dovish bias of further cuts.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document; no change in stance.

Key wording

19 June 2025

At its meeting on 18 June 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent.
rate path: First rate cut after holding at 4.5% since Dec 2023; signals start of easing cycle.

Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee unanimously decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent at its meeting on 18 June.
rate path: Rate cut signals easing cycle has begun.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
rate path: Conditional guidance for additional cuts later this year.

The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed but that it is now appropriate to begin a cautious normalisation of the policy rate.
rate path: Signals first rate cut, marking a shift from tight stance.

Since March, underlying inflation has declined somewhat faster than expected, and the inflation outlook for the coming year indicates somewhat lower inflation than previously expected.
inflation: Inflation surprise lower supports the case for easing.

An escalation of conflicts between countries and uncertainty about future trade policies may result in renewed financial market turbulence and could impact both Norwegian and international growth prospects.
rate path: Highlights downside risks from trade wars; could warrant more easing.

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: Actual rate cut signals easing.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Hawkish surprise: signals slower pace of cuts or possible hikes.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts over next year.

this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: The committee decided to cut rates, signaling an easing bias.

Given a gradual decline in wage growth ahead, inflation is projected to move down and be close to 2 percent in 2028.
inflation: Inflation outlook expects gradual decline to target by 2028, supporting gradual easing.

A cautious normalisation of the policy rate will pave the way for inflation to return to target further out without a substantial increase in unemployment.
rate path: Guides that normalisation will be gradual, balancing inflation and employment.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology