Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 14 August 2025 vs 18 September 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 14 August 2025 and 18 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The September meeting delivered a rate cut but paired it with a hawkish revision to the rate path, indicating the committee is reluctant to ease quickly given sticky inflation. The next decision is likely a hold with continued data-dependence and a bias toward slower normalisation.

What changed

More hawkish. The September meeting delivered a rate cut but paired it with a hawkish revision to the rate path, indicating the committee is reluctant to ease quickly given sticky inflation. The next decision is likely a hold with continued data-dependence and a bias toward slower normalisation.

Inflation — More hawkish. Current document highlights inflation at 3.5% with underlying pressure stronger than expected, a clear escalation from prior's characterisation of inflation above target but falling and 'not fully completed'.
Labour Market — Little changed. No explicit labour market passage in the current document; the prior's hawkish labour market signal is absent but not contradicted, so no directional change.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Despite a 25bp cut, the current document signals a higher future rate path than previously expected and a slower pace of easing, reversing prior guidance of further cuts in 2025.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in the current document; the prior's neutral and hawkish signals are not updated, implying no change in financial stability assessment.

Key wording

14 August 2025

At its meeting on 13 August 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.
rate path: Explicit rate decision: hold at 4.25%.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
rate path: Signals further cuts later this year, conditional on outlook.

if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
rate path: Conditional guidance: further cuts in 2025 if economy evolves as expected.

The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed. A restrictive monetary policy is still needed.
inflation: Emphasizes inflation not defeated, justifying continued tight policy.

Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat from a low level.
inflation: Confirms disinflation progress but inflation still above 2% and labour market softening.

Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target.
inflation: Inflation above target but declining.

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: 25bp cut; first reduction in a cautious normalization cycle.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Signals slower pace of cuts than previously expected; upward revision to rate path.

The Committee considered keeping the policy rate unchanged at this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: Indicates internal debate; cut was not unanimous? Signals reluctance and caution.

Given a gradual decline in wage growth ahead, inflation is projected to move down and be close to 2 percent in 2028.
inflation: Inflation forecast shows gradual return to target.

consumer price inflation now stands at 3.5 percent.
inflation: Inflation well above target; disinflation progress has slowed.

The Committee noted that underlying inflationary pressure appears to be slightly stronger than expected.
inflation: Underlying inflation stickiness suggests rate cuts may be delayed.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology