Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 19 June 2025 vs 6 November 2025
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 19 June 2025 and 6 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The November 2025 statement holds rates steady after earlier cuts, balancing still-high inflation against a softening labour market and slightly below-expected inflation. The next move likely remains a cut, but timing depends on incoming data.
What changed
Mixed. The November 2025 statement holds rates steady after earlier cuts, balancing still-high inflation against a softening labour market and slightly below-expected inflation. The next move likely remains a cut, but timing depends on incoming data.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Current document describes inflation as 'still too high' at 3.6%, contrasting with prior's emphasis on faster-than-expected decline, indicating a less dovish inflation assessment.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Both documents note higher-than-expected unemployment, but current continues to highlight softening, maintaining a dovish labour market view.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Prior document cut rates and signaled further cuts; current document holds rates unchanged but retains conditional guidance for future cuts, indicating a pause rather than a directional change.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Neither document contains specific balance sheet policy passages, implying no shift.
Key wording
At its meeting on 18 June 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent.
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee unanimously decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4.25 percent at its meeting on 18 June.
The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed but that it is now appropriate to begin a cautious normalisation of the policy rate.
Since March, underlying inflation has declined somewhat faster than expected, and the inflation outlook for the coming year indicates somewhat lower inflation than previously expected.
An escalation of conflicts between countries and uncertainty about future trade policies may result in renewed financial market turbulence and could impact both Norwegian and international growth prospects.
At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
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