Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 14 August 2025 vs 6 November 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 14 August 2025 and 6 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. Overall, the November 2025 Norges Bank statement is dovish relative to August, as the committee has already cut rates and signals further easing, while labour market weakening reinforces the dovish tilt. However, inflation still above target caps the pace of easing, suggesting a gradual cutting cycle ahead.

What changed

More dovish. Overall, the November 2025 Norges Bank statement is dovish relative to August, as the committee has already cut rates and signals further easing, while labour market weakening reinforces the dovish tilt. However, inflation still above target caps the pace of easing, suggesting a gradual cutting cycle ahead.

  • Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation remains a concern with headline CPI at 3.6%, higher than the prior 3.1% core, and language still emphasizes that it is 'too high'.
  • Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market assessment softens from tight (prior) to softening (current), with unemployment rising to 2.2% and higher than expected.
  • Rate Path — More dovish. Policy rate has been cut from 4.25% to 4% between meetings, and forward guidance continues to signal further cuts if outlook evolves as expected.
  • Balance Sheet — Little changed. No new balance sheet signals in current document; prior neutral stance on financial stability is maintained implicitly.

Key wording

At its meeting on 13 August 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.

rate path: Explicit rate decision: hold at 4.25%.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.

rate path: Signals further cuts later this year, conditional on outlook.

if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.

rate path: Conditional guidance: further cuts in 2025 if economy evolves as expected.

The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed. A restrictive monetary policy is still needed.

inflation: Emphasizes inflation not defeated, justifying continued tight policy.

Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat from a low level.

inflation: Confirms disinflation progress but inflation still above 2% and labour market softening.

Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target.

inflation: Inflation above target but declining.

At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.

rate path: Policy rate unchanged as expected, signalling patience.

The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.

rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts next year, reinforcing gradual easing path.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.

rate path: Two-sided risks highlight cautious balancing act between inflation and growth.

Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.

inflation: Inflation remains above target, justifying restrictive stance and gradual easing.

Since the previous Report, inflation has been slightly lower than expected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6 percent in September, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) declined to 3.0 percent.

inflation: Inflation slightly below expectations; core declining.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.

rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

Official documents

Background reading

Related

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology

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