Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 14 August 2025 vs 6 November 2025
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 14 August 2025 and 6 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. Overall, the November 2025 Norges Bank statement is dovish relative to August, as the committee has already cut rates and signals further easing, while labour market weakening reinforces the dovish tilt. However, inflation still above target caps the pace of easing, suggesting a gradual cutting cycle ahead.
What changed
More dovish. Overall, the November 2025 Norges Bank statement is dovish relative to August, as the committee has already cut rates and signals further easing, while labour market weakening reinforces the dovish tilt. However, inflation still above target caps the pace of easing, suggesting a gradual cutting cycle ahead.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation remains a concern with headline CPI at 3.6%, higher than the prior 3.1% core, and language still emphasizes that it is 'too high'.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market assessment softens from tight (prior) to softening (current), with unemployment rising to 2.2% and higher than expected.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Policy rate has been cut from 4.25% to 4% between meetings, and forward guidance continues to signal further cuts if outlook evolves as expected.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No new balance sheet signals in current document; prior neutral stance on financial stability is maintained implicitly.
Key wording
At its meeting on 13 August 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.
The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed. A restrictive monetary policy is still needed.
Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat from a low level.
Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target.
At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
Since the previous Report, inflation has been slightly lower than expected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6 percent in September, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) declined to 3.0 percent.
The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
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