Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 September 2025 vs 6 November 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 September 2025 and 6 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The November statement is a hawkish pause relative to September's cut: the Committee held rates while noting improved inflation data and a slightly softer labour market, but emphasized patience and two-sided risks. This suggests a slower pace of easing with the next move dependent on further disinflation confirmation.

What changed

More dovish. The November statement is a hawkish pause relative to September's cut: the Committee held rates while noting improved inflation data and a slightly softer labour market, but emphasized patience and two-sided risks. This suggests a slower pace of easing with the next move dependent on further disinflation confirmation.

Inflation — More dovish. Inflation assessment shifted from stronger-than-expected underlying pressures in September to slightly-lower-than-expected headline and declining core in November, indicating modest disinflation progress.
Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market characterization softened from stable unemployment to a slight increase above expectations, signaling a modest loosening.
Rate Path — More hawkish. The Committee held rates unchanged in November after cutting in September, shifting from active easing to a patient, data-dependent hold with conditional further cuts.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet language in either document; no detectable shift.

Key wording

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: Actual rate cut signals easing.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Hawkish surprise: signals slower pace of cuts or possible hikes.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts over next year.

this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: The committee decided to cut rates, signaling an easing bias.

A cautious normalisation of the policy rate will pave the way for inflation to return to target further out without a substantial increase in unemployment.
rate path: Guides that normalisation will be gradual, balancing inflation and employment.

Given a gradual decline in wage growth ahead, inflation is projected to move down and be close to 2 percent in 2028.
inflation: Inflation outlook expects gradual decline to target by 2028, supporting gradual easing.

6 November 2025

At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged as expected, signalling patience.

The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts next year, reinforcing gradual easing path.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks highlight cautious balancing act between inflation and growth.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Symmetric forward guidance; emphasizes data dependence.

Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
inflation: Inflation remains above target, justifying restrictive stance and gradual easing.

Official documents

Background reading

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