Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 14 August 2025 vs 18 December 2025
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 14 August 2025 and 18 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current statement shows a hawkish tilt on inflation but a dovish shift on labour and rate path, with the rate already cut and a bias toward further easing if conditions soften. The next decision likely holds rates steady, with a cut possible if labour market weakens or inflation slows faster.
What changed
More dovish. The current statement shows a hawkish tilt on inflation but a dovish shift on labour and rate path, with the rate already cut and a bias toward further easing if conditions soften. The next decision likely holds rates steady, with a cut possible if labour market weakens or inflation slows faster.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Current document emphasizes inflation as 'still too high' with upside risks from krone depreciation, while prior acknowledged progress but still above target.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Prior document noted employment rising and vacancies high (hawkish), but current document omits this assessment and references spare capacity, signaling softer labour market view.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Policy rate is now at 4% (from 4.25%) with continued conditional guidance for further cuts, though timeline shifted from '2025' to 'coming year'; explicit faster cut condition if labour weakens added.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Current document lacks explicit balance sheet passages; prior had mixed signals, so no material shift can be inferred.
Key wording
At its meeting on 13 August 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.
The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.
The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed. A restrictive monetary policy is still needed.
Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat from a low level.
Inflation has fallen in recent years but is still above target.
At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, there seems to be a little more spare capacity in the economy than projected in the September Report.
Inflation is still too high. The krone exchange rate has depreciated since the September Report and contributes to raising inflation prospects somewhat going forward.
Twelve-month CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was 3.0 percent in November. CPI inflation was also 3.0 percent, which was higher than projected in the September Report.
If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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