Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 September 2025 vs 18 December 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 September 2025 and 18 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The December statement shows a dovish tilt in forward guidance, projecting further cuts conditional on the outlook, but a hawkish inflation assessment due to persistent inflation and krone weakness. The conflicting signals suggest the committee is cautious and data-dependent, with the next decision likely a hold unless labour market or inflation data shifts decisively.

What changed

Mixed. The December statement shows a dovish tilt in forward guidance, projecting further cuts conditional on the outlook, but a hawkish inflation assessment due to persistent inflation and krone weakness. The conflicting signals suggest the committee is cautious and data-dependent, with the next decision likely a hold unless labour market or inflation data shifts decisively.

Inflation — More hawkish. Current document emphasizes that inflation is still too high and krone depreciation adds upside risks, whereas prior only noted slowing disinflation.
Labour Market — Little changed. No labour market passages in either document; no shift.
Rate Path — More dovish. Prior strongly signaled a higher policy rate needed, while current document conditions future cuts on the outlook and adds explicit downside scenarios for faster easing.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document; no shift.

Key wording

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: Actual rate cut, but subsequent guidance is hawkish.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Raises expected future rate path, signaling slower easing.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Reaffirms eventual further cuts, conditioned on outlook.

The Committee considered keeping the policy rate unchanged at this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: Shows internal debate; cut was a close call, reinforcing cautious tone.

this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: Explicit decision to cut rates at this meeting.

The policy rate forecast in this Report declines gradually to somewhat above 3 percent towards the end of 2028.
rate path: Provides the projected path for the policy rate over the medium term.

18 December 2025

At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Rate decision unchanged, confirming no action at this meeting.

The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Signals future cuts conditional on projections, but cautious and data-dependent.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, there seems to be a little more spare capacity in the economy than projected in the September Report.
rate path: Two-sided risks: faster cuts risk inflation stickiness, slower cuts risk excess slack.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
rate path: Explicit conditionality on rate path, highlighting downside risks to labour/inflation and upside risks from costs/krone.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Explicit condition for faster rate cuts if labour market weakens or inflation undershoots.

On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected. A higher policy rate than currently envisaged may then be required.
rate path: Upside risks to inflation from costs or weak krone could force rate hikes.

Official documents

Background reading

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