Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 6 November 2025 vs 18 December 2025

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current statement maintains a hawkish inflation assessment but shifts dovish on labour market and rate path, explicitly projecting future cuts. This suggests the next decision will hold rates steady but with a stronger easing bias, depending on incoming data.

What changed

More dovish. The current statement maintains a hawkish inflation assessment but shifts dovish on labour market and rate path, explicitly projecting future cuts. This suggests the next decision will hold rates steady but with a stronger easing bias, depending on incoming data.

Inflation — More hawkish. Prior inflation signals were mixed with slightly lower-than-expected readings, while current consistently highlights inflation stuck at 3% and above forecast, reinforcing a restrictive stance.
Labour Market — More dovish. Both documents note softening labour market, but current explicitly reports lower employment and higher unemployment than expected, intensifying the dovish signal.
Rate Path — More dovish. Current adds explicit conditional guidance that policy will be reduced further and faster if conditions weaken, while prior only hinted at cuts, marking a clearer easing bias.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document; no shift.

Key wording

6 November 2025

At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged as expected, signalling patience.

The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts next year, reinforcing gradual easing path.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks highlight cautious balancing act between inflation and growth.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Symmetric forward guidance; emphasizes data dependence.

Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
inflation: Inflation remains above target, justifying restrictive stance and gradual easing.

18 December 2025

At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Signals future cuts conditional on current projection; reinforces easing bias.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected. A higher policy rate than currently envisaged may then be required.
rate path: Two-sided risks: lower if weaker activity/inflation, higher if cost-push or krone weakness persists.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
rate path: Explicit conditionality: faster cuts if labour weakens or disinflation accelerates, but higher rates if costs/krone persist, highlighting two-sided risk.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Signals potential rate cuts if labour or inflation data soften.

Inflation is still too high. After falling markedly in 2023 and 2024, inflation has changed little over the past year.
inflation: Inflation stuck around 3%, above target; supports cautious stance.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology