Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 September 2025 vs 22 January 2026

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 September 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current statement marks a net dovish pivot from September: rate expectations are lowered, inflation concern is elevated but balanced by labour market softening, and future cuts are reaffirmed. The committee is laying the groundwork for the next cut later in 2026, conditional on inflation progress.

What changed

More dovish. The current statement marks a net dovish pivot from September: rate expectations are lowered, inflation concern is elevated but balanced by labour market softening, and future cuts are reaffirmed. The committee is laying the groundwork for the next cut later in 2026, conditional on inflation progress.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation assessment shifted from 'disinflation has slowed' to 'still too high' and core above 3% — a distinctly hawkish repricing of inflation risks.
Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market characterisation introduced: unemployment up and employment down, a dovish signal of cooling demand.
Rate Path — More dovish. Prior cut with hawkish forward guidance replaced by a hold and reiteration of 1-2 cuts in 2026 — the net direction is dovish, as the committee now emphasises conditional easing.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No material shift; financial system robustness and unchanged macroprudential stance carry over as neutral.

Key wording

18 September 2025

At its meeting on 17 September 2025, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate from 4.25 percent to 4 percent.
rate path: Actual rate cut, but subsequent guidance is hawkish.

The Committee judges that a somewhat higher policy rate will likely be needed ahead compared with the outlook in June.
rate path: Raises expected future rate path, signaling slower easing.

The economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Reaffirms eventual further cuts, conditioned on outlook.

The Committee considered keeping the policy rate unchanged at this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: Shows internal debate; cut was a close call, reinforcing cautious tone.

this meeting but concluded that a rate cut is now appropriate.
rate path: Explicit decision to cut rates at this meeting.

The policy rate forecast in this Report declines gradually to somewhat above 3 percent towards the end of 2028.
rate path: Provides the projected path for the policy rate over the medium term.

22 January 2026

The Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Explicit rate decision: hold at 4%.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks: inflation persistence vs. economic slack.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed.
rate path: Balanced risks between inflation persistence and economic slack guide gradual easing.

The policy rate forecast presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
rate path: Reiterates baseline of 1-2 cuts in 2026, unchanged from December.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as anticipated, signaling no immediate change.

If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
rate path: Conditional guidance on future cuts later this year.

Official documents

Background reading

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