Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 6 November 2025 vs 22 January 2026

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 6 November 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current statement signals a modest dovish shift on rate path and labour market while reinforcing hawkish inflation rhetoric, suggesting the committee is moving closer to easing but remains cautious. The next decision likely holds rates steady, with guidance for a potential cut later in 2026 conditional on further disinflation progress.

What changed

More dovish. The current statement signals a modest dovish shift on rate path and labour market while reinforcing hawkish inflation rhetoric, suggesting the committee is moving closer to easing but remains cautious. The next decision likely holds rates steady, with guidance for a potential cut later in 2026 conditional on further disinflation progress.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation rhetoric remains firmly hawkish, with both headline and core still above target; prior document contained a dovish note of slightly lower inflation, which is absent now.
Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market assessment softens further, focusing on increased unemployment and declining employment rate without the prior mention of tightness.
Rate Path — More dovish. Rate path guidance turns more dovish with explicit mention of 1-2 cuts in 2026 and conditional language for further cuts, building on prior conditional guidance.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet and financial stability language unchanged, with no directional shift from prior; both meetings describe robust financial system and unchanged countercyclical buffer.

Key wording

6 November 2025

At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged as expected, signalling patience.

The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts next year, reinforcing gradual easing path.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks highlight cautious balancing act between inflation and growth.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Symmetric forward guidance; emphasizes data dependence.

Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
inflation: Inflation remains above target, justifying restrictive stance and gradual easing.

22 January 2026

The Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Explicit rate decision: hold at 4%.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks: inflation persistence vs. economic slack.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed.
rate path: Balanced risks between inflation persistence and economic slack guide gradual easing.

The policy rate forecast presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
rate path: Reiterates baseline of 1-2 cuts in 2026, unchanged from December.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as anticipated, signaling no immediate change.

Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
inflation: Inflation still above target; underlying inflation sticky at 3%.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology