Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 December 2025 vs 22 January 2026

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 December 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The January statement holds rates steady and retains the baseline of one to two cuts in 2026, but adds a dovish acknowledgement of labour market softening. The overall tone is cautiously dovish, though inflation concerns prevent any immediate easing signal.

What changed

More dovish. The January statement holds rates steady and retains the baseline of one to two cuts in 2026, but adds a dovish acknowledgement of labour market softening. The overall tone is cautiously dovish, though inflation concerns prevent any immediate easing signal.

Inflation — Little changed. Inflation remains above target with similar language; slightly higher actual readings do not materially change the assessment.
Labour Market — More dovish. New mention of rising unemployment and falling employment rate signals a softening labour market.
Rate Path — Little changed. Rate path guidance remains unchanged: hold at 4% with conditional expectation of future cuts.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. First mention of financial system robustness and unchanged countercyclical buffer; no directional shift.

Key wording

18 December 2025

At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Rate decision unchanged, confirming no action at this meeting.

The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Signals future cuts conditional on projections, but cautious and data-dependent.

Inflation is still too high. The krone exchange rate has depreciated since the September Report and contributes to raising inflation prospects somewhat going forward.
inflation: Inflation remains above target and krone weakness adds upside risk to inflation.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, there seems to be a little more spare capacity in the economy than projected in the September Report.
rate path: Two-sided risks: faster cuts risk inflation stickiness, slower cuts risk excess slack.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
rate path: Explicit conditionality on rate path, highlighting downside risks to labour/inflation and upside risks from costs/krone.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Explicit condition for faster rate cuts if labour market weakens or inflation undershoots.

22 January 2026

The Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Explicit rate decision: hold at 4%.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks: inflation persistence vs. economic slack.

Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
inflation: Inflation still above target; underlying inflation sticky at 3%.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed.
rate path: Balanced risks between inflation persistence and economic slack guide gradual easing.

The policy rate forecast presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
rate path: Reiterates baseline of 1-2 cuts in 2026, unchanged from December.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as anticipated, signaling no immediate change.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology