Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 6 November 2025 vs 26 March 2026

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 6 November 2025 and 26 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document represents a decisive hawkish pivot from prior, as inflation overshoots and wage pressures prompt a clear signal of imminent rate hikes. The next decision is likely a rate increase, possibly 25bp, given the explicit forward guidance.

What changed

More hawkish. The current document represents a decisive hawkish pivot from prior, as inflation overshoots and wage pressures prompt a clear signal of imminent rate hikes. The next decision is likely a rate increase, possibly 25bp, given the explicit forward guidance.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation is now described as markedly higher than projected with persistent wage pressures, a clear hawkish shift from prior characterisation of inflation being slightly below expectations.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market focus shifted from softening unemployment to higher wage growth adding to inflation, despite a cautionary note on potential unemployment, resulting in a hawkish turn.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance changed from conditional cuts to explicit signal that a hike is likely at forthcoming meetings, reinforced by a projected rate increase of 25-50bp.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No explicit balance sheet discussion; risk framing implicitly turned more hawkish via rate path and inflation passages.

Key wording

6 November 2025

At its meeting on 5 November 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged as expected, signalling patience.

The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Conditional guidance for further cuts next year, reinforcing gradual easing path.

If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
rate path: Two-sided risks highlight cautious balancing act between inflation and growth.

The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Symmetric forward guidance; emphasizes data dependence.

Inflation is still too high. The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent. Excluding the volatile component energy prices, inflation has been close to 3 percent over the past year.
inflation: Inflation remains above target, justifying restrictive stance and gradual easing.

26 March 2026

At its meeting on 25 March 2026, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4%.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged, but forward guidance suggests future hikes.

The Committee’s current assessment of the inflation outlook implies that it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.
rate path: Explicit signal that a hike is likely at next meetings.

The Committee judges that a tighter monetary policy stance is needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon.
rate path: Direct statement that tighter policy is needed; reinforces hike signal.

If the outlook indicates higher inflation than currently projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If labour market conditions become weaker than projected or the outlook indicates a faster decline in inflation to target, the policy rate may become lower than currently envisaged.
rate path: Balanced conditionality, with upside inflation risk dominating.

The policy rate forecast presented today shows an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼ percent and 4½ percent by the end of this year.
rate path: Explicit rate path forecast points to 25-50bp hikes in 2026.

Inflation has been markedly higher than projected. At the same time, wage growth is projected to be higher this year than projected in December, which will likely restrain disinflation ahead.
inflation: Inflation surprise and wage persistence keep pressure on rates.

Official documents

Background reading

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