Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 18 December 2025 vs 26 March 2026

This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 18 December 2025 and 26 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The overall direction is a clear hawkish pivot from a dovish bias to an imminent tightening cycle, signaling that the Norges Bank is prioritising inflation control over growth concerns. The next decision is likely a rate hike.

What changed

More hawkish. The overall direction is a clear hawkish pivot from a dovish bias to an imminent tightening cycle, signaling that the Norges Bank is prioritising inflation control over growth concerns. The next decision is likely a rate hike.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation surprise and upward wage revisions intensify inflation concerns relative to prior assessment.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market focus shifts from softening employment to upward wage pressures, reinforcing inflation risks.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance pivots from easing bias to strong tightening signal, with forecasted rate hikes.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet policy changes discussed; remains stable.

Key wording

18 December 2025

At its meeting on 17 December 2025, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Policy rate held at 4% as expected; no surprise.

if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Signals future cuts conditional on current projection; reinforces easing bias.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected. A higher policy rate than currently envisaged may then be required.
rate path: Two-sided risks: lower if weaker activity/inflation, higher if cost-push or krone weakness persists.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected.
rate path: Explicit conditionality: faster cuts if labour weakens or disinflation accelerates, but higher rates if costs/krone persist, highlighting two-sided risk.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
rate path: Signals potential rate cuts if labour or inflation data soften.

On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected. A higher policy rate than currently envisaged may then be required.
rate path: Flags upside inflation risks from cost pressures or krone weakness, hinting at possible hikes.

26 March 2026

At its meeting on 25 March 2026, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4%.
rate path: Policy rate unchanged, but forward guidance suggests future hikes.

The Committee’s current assessment of the inflation outlook implies that it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.
rate path: Explicit signal that a hike is likely at next meetings.

The Committee judges that a tighter monetary policy stance is needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon.
rate path: Direct statement that tighter policy is needed; reinforces hike signal.

If the outlook indicates higher inflation than currently projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If labour market conditions become weaker than projected or the outlook indicates a faster decline in inflation to target, the policy rate may become lower than currently envisaged.
rate path: Balanced conditionality, with upside inflation risk dominating.

The policy rate forecast presented today shows an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼ percent and 4½ percent by the end of this year.
rate path: Explicit rate path forecast points to 25-50bp hikes in 2026.

Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided unanimously to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4% at its meeting on 25 March. The Committee’s current assessment of the inflation outlook implies that it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.
rate path: Unanimous decision to hold but strong signal of imminent hike.

Official documents

Background reading

Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology