Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 22 January 2026 vs 18 June 2026
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 22 January 2026 and 18 June 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The overall shift is clearly hawkish, driven by stronger inflation pressures and a repricing of the rate path toward hikes. The next decision is likely a 25bp increase, though dovish dissent about overtightening suggests the committee remains somewhat divided.
What changed
More hawkish. The overall shift is clearly hawkish, driven by stronger inflation pressures and a repricing of the rate path toward hikes. The next decision is likely a 25bp increase, though dovish dissent about overtightening suggests the committee remains somewhat divided.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation is now explicitly elevated at 3.4% with rising inflation expectations, a hawkish escalation from the prior high readings around 3.1-3.2%.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market assessment has softened further, with expectations of higher unemployment and some members seeing greater weakness, reinforcing the prior dovish tone.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. The rate path shifted decisively from a dovish baseline of 1-2 cuts to explicit guidance that a further hike is likely, with the forecast raised to 4.5% and some members advocating an immediate increase.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in the current document, implying no change from the prior neutral assessment of financial system robustness.
Key wording
The Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed to bring inflation down to target.
If the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, an overly tight monetary policy stance could restrain the economy more than needed.
The policy rate forecast presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
The Committee judges that it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.
If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent at its meeting on 17 June.
There is uncertainty about future economic developments, but the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that it will likely be necessary to raise the policy rate further at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.
The policy rate forecast is a little higher than in March and is just above 4.5 percent at the end of the year.
If the economy takes a different path than currently envisaged, the policy rate path may also be adjusted. If the outlook indicates higher inflation than projected, the policy rate may become higher than currently envisaged. On the other hand, if the economy cools to a greater extent than projected or inflation pressures ease faster, the policy rate may become lower.
At its meeting on 17 June, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.
Some members expressed concern that the stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down and argued in favour of raising the policy rate now.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
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