Norges Bank Minutes comparison — 26 March 2026 vs 7 May 2026
This Norges Bank minutes comparison covers 26 March 2026 and 7 May 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The May statement delivers the hike signaled in March, but the tone is less alarmed as inflation and labour market developments now match projections. The committee remains on a gradual tightening path, with the next move dependent on incoming data.
What changed
More dovish. The May statement delivers the hike signaled in March, but the tone is less alarmed as inflation and labour market developments now match projections. The committee remains on a gradual tightening path, with the next move dependent on incoming data.
- Inflation — More dovish. Prior highlighted inflation markedly higher than projected, current says broadly as projected; though still elevated, the surprise element has dissipated.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Prior noted unemployment slightly lower than projected, current says broadly as expected; the tightness surprise is gone.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Prior strongly signaled a near-term hike, current delivers a 25bp hike and maintains the same forward guidance for further tightening; no net change in stance.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet discussion in either document; no shift.
Key wording
At its meeting on 25 March 2026, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4%.
The Committee’s current assessment of the inflation outlook implies that it will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.
Inflation has been markedly higher than projected. At the same time, wage growth is projected to be higher this year than projected in December, which will likely restrain disinflation ahead.
Inflation has been markedly higher than projected.
Capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy appears to be holding steady at close to a normal level. Unemployment has been slightly lower than projected in December.
If the outlook indicates higher inflation than currently projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If labour market conditions become weaker than projected or the outlook indicates a faster decline in inflation to target, the policy rate may become lower than currently envisaged.
At its meeting on 6 May 2026, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4% to 4.25%.
The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since the monetary policy meeting in March, but there is substantial uncertainty about future economic developments.
In Norway, inflation has been broadly as projected. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 3.6% in March, while CPI inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was unchanged at 3%.
Inflation is too high, and there are prospects that inflation will remain elevated ahead. High inflation over time can lead firms and households to plan for persistently high inflation. It may then become more difficult to bring inflation down again.
Labour market developments have overall been broadly as expected, and capacity utilisation still appears to be close to a normal level.
The policy rate forecast presented in March indicated an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼% and 4½% by the end of the year. The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since that time.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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