What changed in the Norges Bank statement — 22 January 2026

Norges Bank held policy at 4.00%. The January 2026 statement is essentially a repeat of December 2025: rates unchanged, gradual easing projected, inflation still elevated, and labour market softening. No directional shift in policy guidance; the committee remains in a wait-and-see posture with a cautious bias against premature cuts.

Decision

Decision: hold
Policy rate: 4.00%

What changed

The January 2026 statement is essentially a repeat of December 2025: rates unchanged, gradual easing projected, inflation still elevated, and labour market softening. No directional shift in policy guidance; the committee remains in a wait-and-see posture with a cautious bias against premature cuts.

Inflation — Little changed. Both documents describe inflation as 'still too high' with persistent domestic pressures; no material change in characterisation.
Labour Market — Little changed. Prior noted slightly more spare capacity, current notes increased unemployment and lower employment rate; both dovish but no directional shift.
Rate Path — Little changed. Both documents hold rates at 4%, signal gradual cuts ahead with caution language ('not in a hurry'), and reiterate one to two cuts in 2026; guidance unchanged.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Current adds explicit mention of geopolitical uncertainty but does not alter the risk balance materially relative to prior's two-sided risks.

Previous wording

The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: No change, as widely expected; rates remain at 4%.

If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Signals that further cuts are planned over the next year, conditional on outlook.

We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate. The forecast we are presenting today is consistent with 1-2 rate cuts next year and a further reduction to somewhat above 3 percent towards the end of 2028.
rate path: Emphasizes caution; only 1-2 cuts in 2026, implying a gradual easing path.

Inflation is still too high.
inflation: Headline inflation remains above target, justifying continued restrictiveness.

While imported inflation is now low, the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services remains high.
inflation: Domestic cost pressures persist, posing upside risk to inflation outlook.

our assessment is that there is now slightly more spare capacity in the Norwegian economy than we assumed in September.
labour market: More slack reduces wage pressures and supports a slower disinflation path.

If labour market conditions weaken more than expected or the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster, the policy rate may be lowered faster. On the other hand, if growth in business costs remains elevated for longer, or the krone proves weaker than projected, inflation could remain elevated for longer than currently projected. A higher policy rate than currently envisaged may then be required.
rate path: Two-sided risks; cuts could accelerate if labour weakens, but hikes possible if inflation persists.

The interest rate outlook is little changed since September, when we last presented forecasts.
rate path: No material revision to the rate path; consistent with prior guidance.

Current wording

Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Key decision: rates on hold.

If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
rate path: Signals cuts ahead, conditional on outlook.

We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and if the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long.
rate path: Cautious tone: no rush to cut, inflation risk persists.

Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
inflation: Core inflation above target, delaying policy easing.

It is primarily the rapid rise in prices for food and many services that is contributing to keeping inflation elevated.
inflation: Drivers of sticky inflation identified.

Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years, and the employment rate has decreased a little.
labour market: Labour market softening supports case for rate cuts.

The interest rate forecast we presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
rate path: Reiterates previous projection for gradual easing.

The current geopolitical situation is tense and is causing uncertainty, including about the economic outlook.
balance sheet: Geopolitical risk adds uncertainty to rate path.

Official statement

Policy rate kept unchanged

Introductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following the announcement of the policy rate on 22 January 2026.

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Chart 1: Policy rate kept unchanged

Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent. If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.

Norges Bank is tasked with keeping inflation low and stable. The operational target is inflation of close to 2 percent over time. We are also mandated to help keep employment as high as possible and to promote economic stability.

In response to the inflation surge in 2022, we raised the policy rate sharply and rapidly, and in recent years the tightening of monetary policy has contributed to cooling down the Norwegian economy and to dampening inflation. Last year, we began a cautious normalisation of monetary policy and reduced the policy rate from 4.5 percent to 4 percent.

We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and if the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long. On the other hand, we do not want to restrain the economy more than needed.

Let me say a few words about what the Committee emphasised this time.

The current geopolitical situation is tense and is causing uncertainty, including about the economic outlook. The US threatened at the weekend to raise tariffs on goods from Norway and other countries that have had military personnel in Greenland. Yesterday evening, after the Committee took its monetary policy decision, it was announced that the tariff increases would not be imposed. The Committee’s assessment is that the announced tariff increases would likely have had a limited impact on the Norwegian economy.

Chart 2: Inflation is still too high

Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024. In December, underlying inflation was broadly as projected in the previous Report . It is primarily the rapid rise in prices for food and many services that is contributing to keeping inflation elevated. The strong growth in business costs over the past years will likely restrain disinflation ahead, but lower wage growth is expected to push down inflation further out.

Chart 3: Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years

Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years, and the employment rate has decreased a little. New labour market information points in slightly different directions. Registered unemployment has declined a bit and been slightly lower than projected in December, while employment growth appears to be a little weaker than projected.

Chart 4: We do not expect a large decrease in the policy rate

The interest rate forecast we presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026. The geopolitical situation is causing uncertainty, but the Committee's current assessment is that the interest rate outlook has not changed materially since December.

The future path of the policy rate will depend on economic developments. The Committee will have received more information about economic developments ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in March, when new forecasts will be presented.

More information

Policy rate decision January 2026

Read the official source

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Background reading

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