Norges Bank Statement comparison — 18 December 2025 vs 22 January 2026
This Norges Bank statement comparison covers 18 December 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was broadly unchanged. The January 2026 statement is essentially a repeat of December 2025: rates unchanged, gradual easing projected, inflation still elevated, and labour market softening. No directional shift in policy guidance; the committee remains in a wait-and-see posture with a cautious bias against premature cuts.
What changed
Broadly unchanged. The January 2026 statement is essentially a repeat of December 2025: rates unchanged, gradual easing projected, inflation still elevated, and labour market softening. No directional shift in policy guidance; the committee remains in a wait-and-see posture with a cautious bias against premature cuts.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents describe inflation as 'still too high' with persistent domestic pressures; no material change in characterisation.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Prior noted slightly more spare capacity, current notes increased unemployment and lower employment rate; both dovish but no directional shift.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Both documents hold rates at 4%, signal gradual cuts ahead with caution language ('not in a hurry'), and reiterate one to two cuts in 2026; guidance unchanged.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Current adds explicit mention of geopolitical uncertainty but does not alter the risk balance materially relative to prior's two-sided risks.
Key wording
The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate. The forecast we are presenting today is consistent with 1-2 rate cuts next year and a further reduction to somewhat above 3 percent towards the end of 2028.
Inflation is still too high.
While imported inflation is now low, the rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services remains high.
our assessment is that there is now slightly more spare capacity in the Norwegian economy than we assumed in September.
Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and if the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long.
Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
It is primarily the rapid rise in prices for food and many services that is contributing to keeping inflation elevated.
Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years, and the employment rate has decreased a little.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 December 2025 statement · 22 January 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology
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