Norges Bank Statement comparison — 6 November 2025 vs 22 January 2026

This Norges Bank statement comparison covers 6 November 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The committee softened its forward guidance on rates, now explicitly signalling cuts ahead in 2026, while maintaining unchanged assessments of inflation and labour market. This dovish shift suggests the first rate cut is approaching, likely within the next few meetings, conditional on continued disinflation.

What changed

More dovish. The committee softened its forward guidance on rates, now explicitly signalling cuts ahead in 2026, while maintaining unchanged assessments of inflation and labour market. This dovish shift suggests the first rate cut is approaching, likely within the next few meetings, conditional on continued disinflation.

Inflation — Little changed. Both documents describe inflation as still too high and above target; no material change in hawkish assessment.
Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market softening language is consistent across both documents; no directional change.
Rate Path — More dovish. Current document explicit about cuts in the course of the year and one to two cuts in 2026, a more dovish forward guidance than prior's emphasis on patience and only one cut per year.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Current document adds a balance_sheet passage on geopolitical uncertainty, absent in prior; no directional stance change.

Key wording

6 November 2025

The Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Rate hold as expected, no surprise.

The forecast we presented was consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years.
rate path: Very gradual easing path, implying only one cut per year.

If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
rate path: Opens the door for a cut within the next year, sooner than the baseline forecast suggests.

Inflation is still too high.
inflation: Explicitly states inflation remains above target.

The latest data show that consumer price inflation is running at 3.6 percent.
inflation: CPI well above 2% target, reinforces need for restrictive policy.

Since the previous monetary policy meeting, employment appears to have been somewhat lower than projected, while unemployment has been a little higher.
labour market: Labour market softening more than expected, supporting case for eventual cuts.

22 January 2026

Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
rate path: Key decision: rates on hold.

If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
rate path: Signals cuts ahead, conditional on outlook.

We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and if the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long.
rate path: Cautious tone: no rush to cut, inflation risk persists.

Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
inflation: Core inflation above target, delaying policy easing.

It is primarily the rapid rise in prices for food and many services that is contributing to keeping inflation elevated.
inflation: Drivers of sticky inflation identified.

Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years, and the employment rate has decreased a little.
labour market: Labour market softening supports case for rate cuts.

Official documents

Background reading

6 November 2025 statement · 22 January 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology